GBP\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda dipten al\u0131m ilgisiyle toparlanarak bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce kaydetti\u011fi haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyenin ard\u0131ndan iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; ancak tepki al\u0131m\u0131 1,3500 psikolojik seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ivme kaybetti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verisinin ard\u0131ndan Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler yumu\u015farken, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) beklentilere paralel geldi. Bu tablo, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Fed\u2019e faizleri sabit tutma alan\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) bask\u0131lay\u0131p pariteye destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin y\u00fcksek seyretmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin ye\u015fil paraya y\u00f6nelmesi, USD\u2019deki kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, jeopolitik risk primini canl\u0131 tuttu. Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k makro verileri toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD verilerine (ayl\u0131k Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi) ile Fed yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara \u00e7evrilirken, parite haftay\u0131 genel olarak yataya yak\u0131n kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan GBP\/USD, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3422\u2019de bulunan ortalama ilk destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunun alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, daha derin bir d\u00fczeltme hareketine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, GBP\/USD paritesi kritik 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 1,3422 civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece dipten al\u0131ma odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ancak parite \u015fu anda 1,3500 kilit diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, spot fiyat\u0131n haftay\u0131 g\u00f6rece yatay kapatmaya yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, ABD enflasyonundaki so\u011fumayla destekleniyor; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde %2,4 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, bu durum Federal Rezerv \u00fczerindeki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f bir \u00dcFE ile birlikte bu e\u011filim tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve GBP kazan\u00e7lar\u0131na alan a\u00e7ar. Bundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, 1,3600\u2019e do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleyen bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin USD\u2019yi ayakta tutan g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019ten gelen sert s\u00f6ylem, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da USD g\u00fcc\u00fcnde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle, 1,3420 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emirleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 veya hedge amac\u0131yla ucuz, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) USD call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, analistlerin %0,2 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, bir sonraki ana y\u00f6n hareketini b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla belirleyecek. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri tarihsel olarak Sterlin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; bu da yak\u0131n vadede sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya bahis oynamak yerine esnek ve bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir i\u015flem stratejisinin korunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GBP\/USD dipten al\u0131mla toparland\u0131; 1,3500\u2019de t\u0131kand\u0131. Zay\u0131f ABD \u00dcFE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini azaltt\u0131, USD geriledi. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 1,3422 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t