AUD\/USD Teknik ve Makro Temeller<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD yatay seyrediyor; 0,6934\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece orta vadeli ton destekleniyor ancak 0,7000 \u00e7evresindeki tekrarlayan teredd\u00fct, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hassas bir dengede tutuyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite 0,7057\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 0,7005\u2019teki 55 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve 0,7056\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n. RSI (14) 58 civar\u0131nda, ADX (14) ise 10 seviyesinde. 0,7100 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; 0,7088, 0,7200 ve 2026 zirvesi olarak 0,7280 civar\u0131 referans seviyeler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 ayr\u0131ca 0,7079\u2019da, 0,7278\u20130,7283 arz b\u00f6lgesinde ve 0,7661\u2019de i\u015faretleniyor. Geri \u00e7ekilmede desteklere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, oda\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nce 0,7056\u2019ya, ard\u0131ndan 0,7005 ve 0,6934\u2019e \u00e7evirecek; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 0,6900, 0,6833, 0,6660, 0,6593, 0,6414 ve 0,6373 seviyeleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i veriler ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor: \u0130malat PMI 51,5\u2019ten 52,0\u2019a, Hizmet PMI ise 50,5\u2019ten 53,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik Haziran\u2019da %4,4\u2019te sabit kal\u0131rken, istihdam May\u0131s\u2019taki revize 44 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 76,3 bin artt\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi Haziran\u2019da 2,367 milyar A$ a\u00e7\u0131kten 1,929 milyar A$ fazlaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc; \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme %0,9\u2019dan %0,3\u2019e yava\u015flarken y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,5\u2019te kald\u0131. Enflasyon 2\u00c7\u2019de %4,1\u2019den %3,9\u2019a geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 medyan %3,5\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi ve beklentiler Temmuz\u2019da %5,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye indi. RBA Haziran\u2019da politika faizini %4,35\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131; piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019de 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,3; sanayi \u00fcretimi %5,3 artarken perakende sat\u0131\u015flar %1,0 y\u00fckseldi. Ticaret fazlas\u0131 105,4 milyar dolardan 125,62 milyar dolara geni\u015fledi; PBoC 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi %3,00\u2019te ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi %3,50\u2019de tuttu. Pozisyonlanma verilerinde CFTC net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar 40,0 bin kontrattan 33,2 bin kontrata gerilerken, a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) yakla\u015f\u0131k 230 bin seviyesinden 240 binin biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Spek\u00fclatif maruziyet -%17,4\u2019ten -%13,8\u2019e iyile\u015fti; 4 haftal\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim -22,3 binden -8,5 bine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; net pozisyon y\u00fczdelik dilimi 74,3\u2019e, spek\u00fclatif maruziyet y\u00fczdelik dilimi 80,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Avustralya Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in, kritik diren\u00e7 seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken sab\u0131rl\u0131 ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimsemeliyiz. AUD\/USD h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,7057 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, net bir trend olu\u015fana kadar agresif y\u00f6n bahislerinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite, destekleyici 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ile 0,7100 diren\u00e7 e\u015fi\u011fi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda oldu\u011fundan bu temkin son derece yerinde.<\/p>\n
0,7100 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, olas\u0131 bir \u201cshort squeeze\u201di yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun pozisyona d\u00f6nmeye haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Son CFTC verileri, spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa kontratlar\u0131n 6.800 azalarak 33,2 bine indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n, kalan sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla kapatmaya zorlayabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme, \u00f6zellikle yurti\u00e7inde enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 yap\u0131\u015fkan kal\u0131rsa, muhtemelen 0,7200 seviyesini hedefleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, Aussie 0,7000 seviyesinden geri \u00e7evrilirse, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 0,6934 civar\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 aramal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu kritik ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki yap\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131y\u0131 bozarak daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret edecektir. O zamana kadar pariteyi, k\u00f6rlemesine kovalamak yerine kenarda kal\u0131nan bant i\u00e7i bir i\u015flem olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
N\u00f6trden hafif pozitif tarafa uzanan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, 53,6 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 ve %4,4\u2019l\u00fck istikrarl\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131yla desteklenen Avustralya ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michele Bullock\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131 kritik olacak; zira merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 %4,35\u2019te tutma karar\u0131, para birimi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini izlemeliyiz; zira nihai k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bu d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc 0,7100\u2019da: AUD\/USD 0,7057\u2019de bantta, 200G SMA \u00fcst\u00fc pozitif. PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, RBA temkinli; \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131. 0,7100 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa squeeze, 0,7000 alt\u0131 d\u00fczeltme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t