NZD\/USD Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Makro Arka Plan<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5850 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve %0,15 geriledi. Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, daha zay\u0131f enflasyon beklentilerinin Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma gerek\u00e7esini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131yla bask\u0131land\u0131. 2026 3. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in iki y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentiler %2,53\u2019ten %2,34\u2019e gerilerken, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentiler %2,6 oldu. Bu so\u011fuma, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; ancak ABD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 dolar\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131 paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye gerileyerek %4,9\u2019luk beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ise %4,7\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye indi. Bu tablo, daha \u00f6nceki T\u00dcFE\u2019deki dezenflasyon sinyalini peki\u015ftirerek Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 binden 209 bine y\u00fckselerek 202 bin beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; devam eden ba\u015fvurular ise 22 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,777 milyona geriledi. Brown Brothers Harriman, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentilerin 81 bp d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %2,60\u2019a, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentilerin 19 bp d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %2,34\u2019e indi\u011fini; be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentilerin 9 bp art\u0131\u015fla %2,31\u2019e ve on y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131n 1 bp art\u0131\u015fla %2,20\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca RBNZ\u2019nin n\u00f6tr faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %2,20\u2013%4,10 oldu\u011fu ve swap piyasas\u0131nda 3,25\u2019e kadar toplam 75 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Teknik seviyelerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 0,5832\u2019de, 100 ve 200 periyot SMA\u2019lar 0,5874 civar\u0131nda, RSI 47,8\u2019de; diren\u00e7 0,5860 ve 0,5879, destek 0,5821 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev Stratejileri ve \u0130\u015flem Fikirleri<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD 0,5850 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde dalgalan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite 0,5874 civar\u0131ndaki kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden teknik e\u011filim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor. 0,5821\u2019deki kritik destek taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimi de dikkate almak gerekiyor; \u00f6zellikle iki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinin %2,34\u2019e gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan. Yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon so\u011fusa da yerel swap piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda 3,25\u2019e kadar 75 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 erteleyebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle faiz swaplar\u0131nda i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na ya da takvim spreadi (calendar spread) al\u0131mlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici enflasyonunun %4,7\u2019ye gerilemesi dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; ancak artan jeopolitik gerilimler bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n alevlendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131, zay\u0131f ekonomik verileri g\u00f6rmezden gelerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itme e\u011filimindedir. Kiwi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilecek ani jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla knock-out opsiyonlar\u0131 veya ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Paritenin sakin kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenler i\u00e7in 0,5821 destek ile 0,5879 diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda iron condor gibi bant stratejileri uygulanabilir. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 0,5832\u2019nin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131na maruziyeti art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in sinyalimiz olacakt\u0131r. Yukar\u0131 tarafta ise 0,5879\u2019daki trend \u00e7izgisi direncinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: NZD\/USD 0,5850\u2019de; RBNZ enflasyon beklentisi %2,34\u2019e indi, Fed\u2019i rahatlatan zay\u0131f \u00dcFE dolar\u0131 yumu\u015fatt\u0131. Kritik: 0,5821 destek, 0,5879 diren\u00e7; opsiyonla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t