Beklentilere paralel gelen ABD T\u00dcFE verisi ve Fed beklentilerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama, dolar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bant i\u00e7inde tutarken riskli varl\u0131klar rallisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline i\u015faret eden ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k %50\u2019den %40\u2019a geriledi. ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ve dolar endeksindeki ilk hareketler ise e\u011frinin dikle\u015fmesiyle daha sonra geri al\u0131nd\u0131 ve dolar g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeden kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, istikrarl\u0131 dolar ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen risk i\u015ftah\u0131 carry i\u015flemlerini desteklemeye devam ediyor; ancak petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcrerken JPY \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riski g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor. Temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ABD faiz e\u011frisinin uzun taraf\u0131nda: Uzun vadeli getirilerde y\u00fckseli\u015f, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 finansman talebi, kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin etkisiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bant i\u00e7inde hareket eden ABD dolar\u0131 ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 riskli varl\u0131klar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek faizli carry i\u015flemlerinde t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli bi\u00e7imde pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya devam etmesi i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin sunuyor. ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun %2,5 civar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funa i\u015faret eden son veriler, Fed\u2019in daha agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015felerini azaltarak dolar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 tuttu. Bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesine imk\u00e2n sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zira Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde ima edilen volatilite tarihsel olarak s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. 2024 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme buna \u00f6rnek. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizi h\u00e2len yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 seviyesinde seyretti\u011finden ABD ile faiz fark\u0131 cazip kalmaya devam ediyor; ancak bu durum olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u0131sa-JPY carry pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken ani m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6netilmesi gereken bir di\u011fer temel risk, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle ABD Hazine tahvillerinde uzun vadeli getirilerin y\u00fckselme potansiyelidir. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,20 civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ani hareketler risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla bozabilir ve carry i\u015flemlerinin marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Portf\u00f6yleri korumak ad\u0131na, ABD getiri e\u011frisindeki ani dikle\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturacak \u015fekilde faiz swapiyonlar\u0131 (interest rate swaptions) kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, bant i\u00e7i kur hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine (\u00f6rne\u011fin iron condor veya ba\u015fl\u0131ca USD paritelerinde k\u0131sa straddle) odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ani bir makro y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin y\u00f6nsel riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Jeopolitik gerilimler ve oynak enerji piyasalar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fcvenli liman talebini tetikleyebilece\u011finden kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesinin makul tutulmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrpriz yapmad\u0131, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %50\u2019den %40\u2019a indi: Dolar bantta, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Carry i\u015flemleri destekleniyor; ancak JPY m\u00fcdahale riski ve uzun vadeli ABD faizlerindeki olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama opsiyonlarla hedge edilmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t