ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k bono ihalesi %3,625 seviyesinde sonu\u00e7land\u0131; bu oran bir \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,64\u2019e g\u00f6re hafif geriledi. Bu hareket, \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli devlet finansman\u0131 maliyetinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim, ihaleler aras\u0131nda 0,015 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. G\u00fcncellenen olu\u015fan getiri ve \u00f6nceki seviye d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka bir ihale metri\u011fi payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son ABD 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu ihalesinin %3,64\u2019ten %3,625\u2019e gerilemesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde daha geni\u015f bir de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde ilerledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00f6n u\u00e7 getirilerindeki bu kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz stratejilerini yeniden kalibre etme zaman\u0131n\u0131n geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak ultra-k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, piyasa daha gev\u015fek parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemleri ve Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. S\u00fcregelen bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrin de\u011ferlendirilmesi i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, getiri oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli, y\u00fcksek getirili bir strateji sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler, enflasyonun hedefe yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla yumu\u015famas\u0131yla getirilerdeki bu temkinli ancak istikrarl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Tarihsel gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli bonolar ile daha uzun vadeli tahviller aras\u0131ndaki fark genellikle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r; bu da getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131r. Bu de\u011fi\u015fime y\u00f6nelik olarak, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korurken daha uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131narak konumlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: ABD\u2019nin 4 haftal\u0131k bono faizi %3,625\u2019e indi (\u00f6nceki %3,64). \u00d6n u\u00e7 getirilerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Fed gev\u015feme beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; SOFR\/Fed Funds long, call opsiyonlar\u0131 ve steepener i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t