USD\/CAD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3940 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. ABD\u2019de daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verileri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Temmuz \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek, haziran ay\u0131ndaki revize %0,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; %0,2 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE %5,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye geriledi; %4,9\u2019luk konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn alt\u0131nda. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki revize %0,4); %0,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE %4,7\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye indi. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 da yumu\u015fak tona katk\u0131 verdi: \u0130lk ba\u015fvurular 209 bin ile 200 bin ve 202 bin beklentilerinin \u00fczerinde gelirken, devam eden ba\u015fvurular 22 bin azalarak 1,777 milyon oldu. ABD tahvil getirileri geriledi; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,14 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, DXY iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
Parite, WTI\u2019\u0131n yeniden 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 CAD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artarken destek buldu. \u00d6te yandan, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin stratejik su yolunda \u201ctam kontrole\u201d sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi ve \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Fed cephesinde mesajlar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Tom Barkin\u2019in FXS Speechtracker skoru 6\/10 (ortalama 5,8\/10) olurken FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 2,36 d\u00fc\u015ferek 135,56\u2019ya geriledi; Beth Hammack 8,2\/10 (7,3\/10\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131) ile endeksi 1,33 art\u0131rarak 137,92\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/CAD, 1,3943\u2019teki 100 saatlik SMA ve 1,3990\u2019daki 200 saatlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; RSI 48,99 seviyesindeydi. Destekler 1,3927 ve 1,3908; diren\u00e7 1,3964 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3940 \u00e7evresinde dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; kar\u015f\u0131t makroekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lerin pariteyi ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,7\u2019ye gerilemesi ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 209 bine y\u00fckselmesi dahil olmak \u00fczere ABD\u2019de enflasyonun yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret eden veriler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Ancak bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla dengeleniyor; bu durum Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yak\u0131n vadeli denge g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa straddle veya iron condor gibi yatay bant stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite tarihsel olarak a\u011fustos sonu d\u00f6neminde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor ve 48,99 seviyesindeki n\u00f6tr RSI g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de konsolidasyon tezini destekliyor. Parite kilit teknik bariyerler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, prim toplamaya y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle Beth Hammack gibi Fed yetkililerinin acil faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yapmas\u0131yla, ani volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmak gerekiyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi 100 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f olsa da, Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 137,92 ile belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fmenin pariteyi 1,3990\u2019daki 200 periyot hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 USD\/CAD\u2019de ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
CAD taraf\u0131nda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilmesi nedeniyle petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Tarihsel veriler, WTI\u2019da 5 dolarl\u0131k bir sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n genellikle bir hafta i\u00e7inde USD\/CAD\u2019de 100-150 piplik harekete yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bull call spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, olas\u0131 arz kesintilerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in etkin bir \u201cproxy\u201d i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilirken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n
Biraz daha ileri vadede, Kanada\u2019da i\u00e7 toparlanma ve artan ihracat hacimleri, k\u0131sa vadeli petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na yap\u0131sal bir destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. ABD ile yakla\u015fan ticaret m\u00fczakereleri izlenmeli; tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, \u201cLoonie\u201dnin orta vadeli patikas\u0131n\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan daha fazla bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin belirleyebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7ok haftal\u0131 bir perspektife sahip yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 1,3960 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda USD\/CAD\u2019de uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (long-dated put) al\u0131m\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD 1,3940\u2019ta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ABD\u2019de yumu\u015fayan \u00dcFE ve tahvil getirileri Dolar\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, WTI\u2019\u0131n 80$ alt\u0131 CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Teknikte 1,3927-1,3964 band\u0131; strateji straddle\/condor, \u015fahin Fed riskine OTM call hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t