Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019si 2\u00c726\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; geni\u015flemeyi \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 destekledi. 4\u00c724\u2019ten bu yana B\u0130T (ICT) ekipman\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, toplam GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %1,9 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde GSYH\u2019ye 0,45 y\u00fczde puan katk\u0131 verdi; yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131 halinde bu kanal\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede \u00fcretimi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ici desteklerin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesi ve r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesiyle 2Y26\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin so\u011fumas\u0131 bekleniyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalan ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, D\u00fcnya Kupas\u0131 ve elveri\u015fli hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 gibi tek seferlik unsurlar\u0131n etkisinin azalmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 Sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik yer al\u0131yor. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve kamu hizmetleri (utility) fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da reel gelirleri bask\u0131lamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2Y26\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik ortalama %0,1 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm BoE\u2019nin Temmuz Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (MPR) ile uyumlu. B\u00f6ylece 2026 y\u0131l geneli b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,1\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; 2025 sonundaki %0,7 tahminine k\u0131yasla yukar\u0131 revizyon s\u00f6z konusu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faaliyet verileri, krize ra\u011fmen \u015fu ana kadar dayan\u0131kl\u0131 seyretti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sonbahara girerken Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k piyasalar\u0131nda momentumda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, B\u0130T ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi temel s\u00fcr\u00fckleyiciler ge\u00e7ici bir tavanla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yaln\u0131zca %0,1\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 beklentisiyle sterlinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeye olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama senaryosundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, GBP\/USD paritesinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 yoluyla sterlinde k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak benzer b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri\u2014ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda yaz sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flama \u00f6rneklerinde oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz beklentilerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikledi. Swap piyasas\u0131 daha agresif faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da receiver swap\u2019lar\u0131 ve uzun gilt vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (gilt futures) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015fan Sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi ve y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetlerine odaklanmak gerekiyor; bu dinamikler, gilt volatilitesinin sert y\u00fckseldi\u011fi 2022 sonundaki mali bask\u0131lar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. FTSE 100 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00f6rece ucuz seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve straddle al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Volatilitede geni\u015fleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanarak, hem Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik \u015foklara hem de yurt i\u00e7i politika kaynakl\u0131 ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Man\u015fet: \u0130ngiltere 2\u00c726\u2019da %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc, AI\/B\u0130T yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi. Ancak 2Y26\u2019da %0,1\u2019e so\u011fuma, vergi\/enerji riskleri ve BoE indirimleriyle sterlin bask\u0131lanabilir; opc\u0327iyon\/receiver stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t