Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019si ilkbaharda \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; bunun sonucunda y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131. Hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve 2026 2. \u00e7eyrekte stok birikimi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Banka, gelen verilerin analistleri b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye itebilece\u011fini; y\u0131l geneli i\u00e7in %1,1\u2019e y\u00fckseltme ihtimalinin g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini belirtirken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n G7 i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 i\u00e7in yar\u0131\u015fta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde ivmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u00e7ift yak\u0131t (elektrik+gaz) faturalar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin 2026 3. \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Y\u00fcksek akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan Burnham\u2019\u0131n ilk mali etkinli\u011fi \u00f6ncesindeki b\u00fct\u00e7e belirsizli\u011fiyle birlikte reel harcanabilir gelirler \u00fczerinde ilave bir y\u00fck olarak g\u00f6sterildi. Bankan\u0131n temel senaryosu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00e7eyreklik yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 seviyesinde seyretmesi; bununla birlikte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere de i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda s\u00fcrpriz derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve G7\u2019nin zirvesine yerle\u015fen bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak artan enerji maliyetleri ve yakla\u015fan b\u00fct\u00e7e kararlar\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1\u2019e keskin \u015fekilde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu \u00e7eli\u015fen ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lerin etkisini g\u00f6stermesiyle artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. <\/p>\n
Sterlin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, son d\u00f6nemde 1,29 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda seyreden GBP\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 bir gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) aramas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH verisi k\u0131sa vadede sterlini desteklese de yakla\u015fan enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve i\u00e7 politikadaki b\u00fct\u00e7e belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015fi muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Sonbahara yakla\u015f\u0131rken ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faizleri daha fazla indirmek yerine sabit tutabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Halihaz\u0131rda \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri, 2026 sonuna kadar agresif faiz indirimleri beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. \u0130nat\u00e7\u0131 hizmet enflasyonu ve son \u00e7eyreklik %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 temkinli tutabilece\u011finden, Aral\u0131k vadeli bu kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde ise FTSE 100 endeksinde volatilite fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7 talebe duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerinin daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7ift yak\u0131t faturalar\u0131 ve hanehalk\u0131 gelirlerindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan olumsuz etkilenmesi beklenirken, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in endeks straddle\u2019lar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu strateji, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015fan mali a\u00e7\u0131klamaya tepki vermesiyle olu\u015fabilecek sert piyasa hareketlerinden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ngiltere\u2019de GSYH baharda %0,4 art\u0131p ilk yar\u0131da y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; G7 zirvesi hedefte. Ancak enerji faturalar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %0,1\u2019e yava\u015flatabilir; piyasalar oynakla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t