Bloomberg WIRP fiyatlamas\u0131, Temmuz ABD T\u00dcFE verisi sonras\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %39,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti; 11 A\u011fustos\u2019ta bu oran %48,1 seviyesindeydi. Bu kayma, piyasalar gelen enflasyon verileri etraf\u0131nda yeniden fiyatlama yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, federal fon hedef faizinde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
UOB\u2019nin baz senaryosu, Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda politikay\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131 ve gev\u015femenin 2027\u2019de yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patika, ikisi de 25 baz puan olmak \u00fczere iki faiz indirimini (biri 2027 2\u00c7 sonu, di\u011feri 2027 4\u00c7 sonu) varsay\u0131yor; bu da federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 2027 sonu itibar\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,25\u2019e indiriyor ve bu seviye terminal faiz tahmini olarak sunuluyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ayr\u0131ca, jeopolitik ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi bir unsur olarak not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz T\u00dcFE bask\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte, k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 derhal ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. Uzun bir faiz istikrar\u0131 d\u00f6nemi bekliyoruz; bu da Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00e7ok dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda iron condor satmak gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejiler uygulayarak bu sakin d\u00f6nemi de\u011ferlendirmeye odaklanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcreli \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemleri Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131 volatilitesinde sert gerilemelere yol a\u00e7ar. \u00d6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki uzayan duraklama d\u00f6nemlerinde, tahvil piyasas\u0131 volatilitesini \u00f6l\u00e7en ICE BofA MOVE Endeksi, tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde alt\u0131na inmi\u015ftir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ima edilen volatilitenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle birlikte prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa-orta vadeli Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyon yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
2027 sonuna do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz indirimlerine giderken, getiri e\u011frisinin kademeli bi\u00e7imde ters e\u011fimden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 (disinversion) ve dikle\u015fmesi olduk\u00e7a muhtemel. Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 ve nihayetinde 2027 sonu itibar\u0131yla %3,25\u2019e indirmesi beklendi\u011finden, e\u011frideki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Geni\u015fleyen spread\u2019den faydalanmak \u00fczere 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvillerinde opsiyonlar kullanarak \u201ccurve steepener\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131na girilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ra\u011fmen, jeopolitik gerilimler ve oynak enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden alevlendirebilmi\u015f ve Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ani bir politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 riskinin az\u0131msanmayacak d\u00fczeyde olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, koruyucu tampon olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) payer swaption\u2019lar\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Temmuz T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 WIRP, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %39,9\u2019a \u00e7ekti: Fed\u2019de \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d fiyatlan\u0131yor. SOFR\u2019de bant stratejileri, opsiyon yaz\u0131m\u0131; 2-10Y steepener, OTM payer swaption\u2019la koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t