USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,8130 civar\u0131na gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini tersine \u00e7evirdi. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, yurti\u00e7i fiyat verilerinden destek buldu. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin \u00fcretici ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu oran Haziran\u2019la ayn\u0131 kalarak \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir devam eden deflasyonist s\u00fcreci uzatt\u0131. Ayl\u0131k bazda endeks, \u00f6nceki %0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,1 geriledi; petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 maliyetlerin gev\u015femesiyle \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Dolar da daha zay\u0131f ABD enflasyon verilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE Temmuz\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise %2,5 ile beklentilere paralel geldi. Faiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fti: CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %36\u2019ya indirdi (bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %48), bu da USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ise dolara destek sa\u011flayabilir; artan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, daha sert yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek bir deniz ablukas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u0130svi\u00e7re ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcyen para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de \u00fcretici ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,1 gerilemesi, yurti\u00e7i deflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yerle\u015fik kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki tarihsel deflasyon d\u00f6nemleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen bu kesintisiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak veya daha da indirmek i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alana sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesi halihaz\u0131rda 0,8130 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde cazip bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 bu denli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere do\u011fru \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011finde, merkez bankas\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7reli ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in aktif m\u00fcdahaleye ba\u015fvurmu\u015f veya g\u00fcvercin politikalar kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu teknik taban\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread\u2019ler, dolar toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve cazip bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ABD enflasyonundaki so\u011fuma agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin de\u011fi\u015fen beklentileri yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f olsa da, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik riskler ve petrol ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik abluka tehditleri, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman talebini h\u0131zla tetikleyebilir. Bu ani piyasa de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 paritelerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; b\u00f6ylece yak\u0131n vadede iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert volatiliteden faydalanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalarda g\u00f6zler USD\/CHF\u2019de: Parite 0,8130\u2019a inerken \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de %2,1\u2019lik deflasyon frang\u0131 destekledi. ABD T\u00dcFE\/Fed beklentileri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131; jeopolitik riskler ise call spread ve straddle stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t