Yen, piyasalar\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) normalle\u015fme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerleyebilece\u011fi beklentisine y\u00f6nelmesiyle hafif de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Bloomberg\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi\u2019nin h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, BoJ\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ya da Ekim\u2019de gelebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 seviyesine do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131, yeniden devreye girebilecek d\u00f6viz (FX) m\u00fcdahalesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fti; zira yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar halihaz\u0131rda Ekim\u2019e kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlamaya ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yordu. Kyodo, 31 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD-Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahalesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; Ueda, ihtiya\u00e7 halinde BoJ\u2019nin \u201cfaiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Haberde ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019nin geciken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n yeni daha da zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fi ve uzun vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi endi\u015felerine at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bir sonraki BoJ Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131 17-18 Eyl\u00fcl tarihlerinde.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl 17-18 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in alan h\u0131zla daral\u0131yor. Ani ve sert bir politika hamlesi veya ortak kur m\u00fcdahalesi riski nedeniyle, korunmas\u0131z (hedge edilmemi\u015f) k\u0131sa yen pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada son derece riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel \u00f6rneklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japon otoritelerin gerekti\u011finde y\u00fcksek tutarl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda rekor 9,8 trilyon yen, ayn\u0131 yaz\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ise ilave 5,5 trilyon yen harcanarak para birimi savunulmu\u015ftu. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 Ekim\u2019e kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 muhtemelen \u00e7ok sert ve oynak hareketleri tetikleyecektir. 160,00 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve fiziki m\u00fcdahaleyi tetiklemesi halinde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu ortamda, yakla\u015fan politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flarken JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, zararda (out-of-the-money) put spread sat\u0131n almak; prim erimesini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete daha uygun maliyetle kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flayabilir. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck portf\u00f6yler i\u00e7in, 161,00 \u00fczerinde knock-out olan yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131, devlet kaynakl\u0131 ani bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) maliyetini belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen\u2019de kritik e\u015fik: USD\/JPY 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl-Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve olas\u0131 FX m\u00fcdahalesi masada. Oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131yor; k\u0131sa yen riski b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, JPY call ve put spread\u2019lerle korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t