WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri NYMEX\u2019te Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,5 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 82,10 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015fta, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler etkili oldu. K\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu ge\u00e7itte ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fi kontrol ettiklerini belirtmeleri, navlun\/ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k hacimlerinin de incelmesiyle birlikte fiyatlar\u0131 destekledi. Kpler verileri, 10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta alt\u0131 geminin ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu rakam 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan yakla\u015f\u0131k 11\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 130-140 gemilik ak\u0131\u015fla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\nOPEC, bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini 780 bin varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinden 580 bin varil\/g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde WTI, 2 Temmuz dip seviyesi 67,09 dolardan 23 Temmuz zirvesi 92,25 dolara uzanan hareketin %61,8 d\u00fczeltme seviyesinden tepki verdikten sonra 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 80,07 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. RSI (14) 52,55 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler 82,54 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 86,11 dolar; destekler 80,07 dolar ve 79,65 dolar. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyeler 76,75, 72,64 ve 67,40 dolar olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle WTI ham petrolde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem takip verileri, bu kritik koridordan ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnl\u00fck gemi trafi\u011finin alt\u0131 gemiye kadar geriledi\u011fini; bunun da sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi tarihi ortalama olan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 130 geminin \u00fczerindeki seviyelere g\u00f6re \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine ev sahipli\u011fi yapan bu darbo\u011faz \u00fczerinde hem ABD\u2019nin hem de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kontrol iddias\u0131, uzun s\u00fcreli arz kesintisi riskini canl\u0131 tutarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
\nBu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek ad\u0131na, WTI\u2019n\u0131n 82,10 dolar civar\u0131nda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi\u011fi ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 80,07 dolar\u0131n rahat bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak kritik teknik seviyelerin izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Fiyat\u0131n 80,00 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ilk deste\u011fi test etmesi halinde, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; ilk hedef 82,54 dolar direnci ve ard\u0131ndan 86,11 dolar seviyesi olabilir. RSI\u2019\u0131n 52,55 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede bulunmas\u0131, piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce kademeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\nBununla birlikte, OPEC\u2019in k\u00fcresel petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini 580 bin varil\/g\u00fcne indirmesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flayan talep sinyallerine kar\u015f\u0131 bu iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn dengelenmesi gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak, sert arz riskleri zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel taleple \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enerji piyasalar\u0131 tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc, p\u00fcr\u00fczs\u00fcz bir ralli yerine keskin ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi g\u00fc\u00e7 dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayabiliyor. Bu y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle gibi oynakl\u0131k bazl\u0131 stratejiler veya bo\u011fa call spreadleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
\nAyr\u0131ca 1980\u2019lerdeki \u201cTanker Sava\u015f\u0131\u201d gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki benzer aksamalar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Buna ek olarak, ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 375 milyon varil ile tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretmesi, ani arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 absorbe edecek k\u00fcresel \u201ctamponu\u201d azalt\u0131yor. Bu rezerv yast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 yeni bir askeri t\u0131rmanman\u0131n panik al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak WTI\u2019\u0131 86,11 dolar direncinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131ma riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemi trafi\u011fi 6\u2019ya inince WTI %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 82,10 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. OPEC talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 580 bin varile \u00e7ekti. Teknikte 80,07 \u00fcst\u00fc; diren\u00e7 82,54\/86,11. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t