BNY verileri, 29 Temmuz\u2019daki ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131nda (USD) \u201chedge kald\u0131rma\u201d (dehedging) s\u00fcrecinin zirvesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi hesaplar USD hedge\u2019lerini yeniden tesis etmeye ba\u015flarken, ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temel talebi koruyup efektif olarak hedge edilmemi\u015f ABD maruziyetini azalt\u0131yor. Bankan\u0131n USD \u201cnet hedge\u201d g\u00f6stergesi, yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019e yak\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hedge\u201d pozisyonundan Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 itibar\u0131yla son 12 ayl\u0131k seviyesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131na gerileyerek pozisyonlanmada h\u0131zl\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti. Spot tarafta dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 GBP, EUR ve CAD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, JPY ve CNY istisna olarak ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
29 Temmuz\u20135 A\u011fustos aras\u0131nda BNY\u2019nin net ABD varl\u0131k maruziyeti \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc 0,47\u2019den 0,34\u2019e geriledi; uzun vadeli ortalaman\u0131n ise s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu ve hedge oranlar\u0131n\u0131n genellikle varl\u0131k de\u011ferlerini takip etme e\u011filiminde bulundu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Ay sonu etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, veriler Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 do\u011frudan hedge seviyelerine yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; d\u00f6vizin (FX) giderek daha fazla enflasyonun \u201cge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi\u201d (pass-through) kanal\u0131 olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Sunulan \u00e7er\u00e7eve, politika endi\u015felerinin ABD varl\u0131k maruziyetini toptan azaltmak yerine daha y\u00fcksek USD hedge oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ifade edilmesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda altta yatan ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmak yerine ABD dolar\u0131 hedge\u2019lerini aktif bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in son d\u00f6nemdeki politika tonu, portf\u00f6yleri zay\u0131flayan dolar riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla kur hedge\u2019lerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecini tetikledi. FX opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri (forward) kullan\u0131m\u0131, temel ABD yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korurken bu sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa dolar (short USD) t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu \u0130ngiliz sterlini (GBP), euro (EUR) ve Kanada dolar\u0131 (CAD) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. Euro\u2019nun 1,09 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, sterlinin ise 1,28\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutundu\u011fu mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, bu para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar put\u2019lar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip duruyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, daha geni\u015f trendin tersine ayr\u0131\u015fan Japon yeni (JPY) ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bu k\u0131sa dolar stratejilerinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu strateji, 29 Temmuz\u2019daki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan hedge edilmemi\u015f ABD varl\u0131k maruziyetinin 0,47\u2019den 0,34\u2019e sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle destekleniyor. Hedge\u2019e y\u00f6neli\u015f, parasal gev\u015feme beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda 101,80\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesiyle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %100 fiyatlamas\u0131, dolar sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6nemli bir nokta olarak, uzun vadeli Amerikan varl\u0131klar\u0131na talep yap\u0131sal olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bunun ABD ekonomik bask\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde de\u011filiz. K\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin maruziyetlerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kullan\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ana hisse senedi portf\u00f6ylerimizi likide etmeden bu hedge dalgas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli FX forward ve opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed sonras\u0131 dehedging zirve yapt\u0131: BNY, USD net hedge\u2019in h\u0131zla normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 GBP\/EUR\/CAD\u2019de yo\u011fun; JPY\/CNY ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm: ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmadan hedge\u2019i art\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t