Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam etti. Taraflar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda kontrol iddias\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ile deniz ablukas\u0131na dayanmas\u0131 nedeniyle gemi trafi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131. Ufukta bir anla\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclmezken Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n\n
ABD T\u00dcFE verisi beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; dezenflasyona enerji ve benzin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck ederken, u\u00e7ak biletleri, ikinci el otomobiller ve bilgisayarlar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ekledi. Enflasyon, be\u015f y\u0131l sonra da Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 bir miktar gev\u015fedi ancak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri ortadan kalkmad\u0131; bu da A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019ye ve Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131rd\u0131. Sonras\u0131nda odak, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hem man\u015fet hem \u00e7ekirdek d\u00fczeyde so\u011fumas\u0131 beklenen Temmuz ABD \u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evriliyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te AUD ve NZD ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gerilerken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Eyl\u00fcl veya Ekim\u2019de BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen JPY hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Faiz taraf\u0131nda getiri e\u011frisi yeniden fiyatland\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 son bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puandan kabaca 16 baz puana y\u00fckseldi. ABD tahvillerinde \u201cbull steepening\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken hisse senetleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; Dow Jones yatay kapan\u0131rken, G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeden Brent petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda pozisyon alarak yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve tarihsel \u00f6rneklerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n enerji ima edilen volatilitesini %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanmak olduk\u00e7a cazip. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarken, beklenmedik bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n
ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin yatay gelmesi ve Temmuz \u00dcFE raporunun bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131yla, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri ve SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak k\u0131sa vadede sabit getirili taraftaki oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Piyasa Jackson Hole\u2019da Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u201cbear steepener\u201d opsiyon stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak enflasyon merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadeli getiriler daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselme e\u011filimindedir; bu da uzun vadeli tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (long-bond futures) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir defansif hamle haline getirir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda Japon Yeni al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/JPY \u015fu anda sakin olsa da opsiyon piyasas\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 16 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu \u015fahin de\u011fi\u015fimi teyit ederse, Yen h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde de\u011fer kazanabilir; bu hareket, ge\u00e7mi\u015f para politikas\u0131 ayarlamalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen tarihsel %12\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 and\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde, d\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknoloji k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n da deste\u011fiyle prim toplamak amac\u0131yla yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131 temalar\u0131nda put opsiyonu yaz\u0131m\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI\u2019nin resmen bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131na girmesiyle, Do\u011fu Asya hisse endekslerinde call opsiyonu almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum stratejisidir. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, istikrarl\u0131 teknoloji b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden faydalan\u0131rken daha geni\u015f makroekonomik duraksamalara kar\u015f\u0131 hedge imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Brent\u2019i 90 dolarda tutarken, gemi trafi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 volatiliteyi k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. ABD T\u00dcFE dengeli; \u00dcFE ve Jackson Hole kritik. Strateji: Brent call, bear steepener, JPY call, Asya call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t