Rupi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131ndaki gece boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan temkinli bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki d\u00fczeltme hareketinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,35\u2019e y\u00fckselerek hafif art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda uzayan aksamaya ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc zirveye yak\u0131n 100,06 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. \u00d6te yandan, temmuz ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin yava\u015flayabilece\u011fi beklentisi, yak\u0131n vadede ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fine dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n %50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ilerleme sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol cephesinde risk alg\u0131s\u0131 toparlan\u0131rken, 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.920 rupi seviyesinde yataya yak\u0131n seyretti. Daha \u00f6nce OPEC, y\u0131l geneli k\u00fcresel petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini 780 bin varil\/g\u00fcnden 580 bin varil\/g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hindistan\u2019da temmuz perakende T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hazirandaki %4,38\u2019den %4,45\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; %4,50 tahminine yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri, RBI\u2019\u0131n %2\u2013%6 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken RSI (14) 46,74 seviyesindeydi; destekler 95,30 ve 94,83\u2019te, diren\u00e7 ise 96,00\u2019da izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR paritesinde temkinli ve bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 95,35 seviyesinde ve 95,50\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, bu \u00fcst diren\u00e7ten faydalanmak i\u00e7in 96,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yazmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta ilk destek 95,30 seviyesinde, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban ise 5 A\u011fustos dip seviyesi olan 94,83\u2019te bulunuyor. K\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosu arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, paritenin 95,30\u2019un alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi halinde ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (close-to-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alabilir. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na aktif m\u00fcdahalelerde bulundu\u011fundan, bu kilit seviyelerin \u00f6tesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenmelidir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 100,06 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yatay seyrini koruyor; ancak so\u011fuyan enflasyon verileri Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 %50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011finden, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz bir ralliye ba\u015flamas\u0131 zorla\u015fabilir. Bu belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda takvim spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131larak faiz hassasiyetinin izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. MCX a\u011fustos vadeli kontrat, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan gerilimler e\u015fli\u011finde 7.920 rupi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte OPEC\u2019in k\u00fcresel petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini 780 bin varil\/g\u00fcnden 580 bin varil\/g\u00fcne indirmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zay\u0131flayan talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 ve ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Hint rupisi i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal bir rahatlama sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n yurti\u00e7i makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Temmuzda perakende enflasyon %4,45\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselse de, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2\u2013%6\u2019l\u0131k konfor band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Bu istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon ortam\u0131, RBI\u2019a b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lamadan faizleri sabit tutma alan\u0131 veriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yurti\u00e7i istikrar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan gelir elde etmek i\u00e7in iron condor gibi n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi g\u00fcne temkinli ba\u015flad\u0131; USD\/INR 95,35\u2019te, DXY 100,06 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Petrol\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrerken Fed beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Teknikte 95,30 destek, 96,00 diren\u00e7; bant stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t