USD\/CAD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3940 civar\u0131nda tutundu ve daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn emtiaya duyarl\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dengelemesiyle dar bir bantta kald\u0131. Paritenin tonu, ABD Temmuz T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verilerinin ard\u0131ndan \u015fekillendi; veriler, Fed\u2019in daha agresif bir ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilerken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e indi; her iki okuma da piyasa tahminleriyle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Veri sonras\u0131 faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40,1 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Ekim\u2019de art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcne g\u00f6re %75\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019a gerilerken, Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlanmayan ilk toplant\u0131 oldu. TD Securities verileri, man\u015fet enflasyonu ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 (yuvarlama \u00f6ncesi %0,074) olarak hesaplarken, bu oran TD\u2019nin %0,15 tahminine ve %0,1\u2019lik konsens\u00fcse k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f seyre i\u015faret etti; ayr\u0131ca benzinde ayl\u0131k %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kanada para birimi, 2026 i\u00e7in talep tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. OPEC, 2026 k\u00fcresel petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fcnl\u00fck 580 bin varile indirirken, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) bu y\u0131l t\u00fcketimde 1,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc (\u00f6nceki tahmin 1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnd\u00fc); bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kesintilerin g\u00f6lgesinde \u015fekillendi. ABD\u2019nin s\u00f6ylemleri ve \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyebilecek olas\u0131 \u00f6nlemler de yak\u0131ndan izlendi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD paritesinde 1,3940 pivot seviyesi \u00e7evresinde bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilere odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu anda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dengelemesi nedeniyle, paritenin dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. Bu kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler kur hareketini n\u00f6trledi\u011fi s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor kurulumlar\u0131 veya straddle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5\u2019e gerilemesiyle, faiz t\u00fcrevleri pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahin bir patikaya girece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re yeniden konumland\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin %40,1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, Ekim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019a geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bu ani g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, \u00f6zellikle ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fimiz b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. OPEC\u2019in 2026 k\u00fcresel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini g\u00fcnl\u00fck 580 bin varile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ve IEA\u2019n\u0131n 1,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi, fiziksel piyasada zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. WTI ham petrol \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; olas\u0131 bir ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD 1,3940\u2019ta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Zay\u0131f dolar, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol\u00fcn CAD bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dengeliyor. T\u00dcFE %3,4\u2019e indi, Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi azald\u0131. 1,3940 \u00e7evresinde range stratejileri; petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda put+call hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t