EUR\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc gerileyerek, ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentiye paralel gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1563 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1521 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,4 ve %2,5\u2019e gerileyerek ilk etapta Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131nda bir miktar geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikledi. Ancak daha sonra enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon risklerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tutmas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f ihtimalinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini desteklemesiyle Dolar kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. DXY, 99,61\u2019den toparland\u0131ktan sonra 100 seviyesi civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n\n
Bu hareket, EUR\/USD\u2019yi 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da tekrarlanan ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z denemelerin ard\u0131ndan son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketinin alt taraf\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite 1,1500 seviyesinin ve 1,1466\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. RSI 56 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; MACD pozitif kal\u0131rken ye\u015fil histogram\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve ADX\u2019in 20\u2019lerin sonundaki seyri orta d\u00fczey trend g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7 1,1567\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da; bunun \u00fczerinde 1,1630 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA izleniyor. Destek ise 1,1500, ard\u0131ndan 1,1466.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Paritenin yak\u0131n zamanda 1,1567\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Konsolidasyon s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece 1,1630 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fczenli prim geliri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin 1,1500\u2019deki yak\u0131n psikolojik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, 1,1466\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Bu senaryoda, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya bear put spread stratejileri uygulamak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Son CFTC Commitment of Traders verileri de bu temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor: Kurumsal Euro net-uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, son zirvelerine k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 oran\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler ve yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden enerji fiyatlar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 100 seviyesi civar\u0131nda dengede tutuyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, tarihsel A\u011fustos i\u015flem kal\u0131plar\u0131yla da uyumlu; yaz aylar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fen likidite, b\u00fcy\u00fck sonbahar trendleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce bant hareketini s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. K\u00fcresel enflasyon verilerindeki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlerin volatiliteyi h\u0131zla art\u0131rabilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi yok, ama EUR\/USD\u2019de sular durulmuyor: Dolar jeopolitik ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 risklerle toparland\u0131, parite 1,1567\u2019yi a\u015famad\u0131. 1,1500\/1,1466 destek, bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t