Sterlin, temmuz ABD T\u00dcFE raporunun beklentilere paralel gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3500 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti; GBP\/USD, 1,3546\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra son olarak 1,3497 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Man\u015fet enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6\u2019dan %3,5\u2019e gerilerken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e indi. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti: Prime Terminal, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak g\u00f6sterdi; 9 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %73\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00fc\u00e7 enflasyon verisi daha bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik risk g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde t\u0131kanma i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u0130ran H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda askeri duru\u015f benimsedi. CNN, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ABD b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7iliklerinin azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f personelle uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta dikkatler, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak GSYH verilerine \u00e7evrildi: y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nceki %0,9\u2019a k\u0131yasla %1,1\u2019e, \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise %0,6\u2019dan %0,4\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan GBP\/USD, 1,3369 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki SMA k\u00fcmesinin ve 1,3427 ile 1,3340\u2019taki trend \u00e7izgisi seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI 59,4 seviyesinde bulunurken, diren\u00e7 olarak 1,3511 ve 1,3573 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, gergin bir makroekonomik ortamda GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3500 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,5\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 piyasalara ge\u00e7ici bir sakinlik getirmi\u015f olsa da, s\u0131radaki ana kataliz\u00f6r yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH verisi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %1,1\u2019lik geni\u015flemenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz patikas\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlama bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in, GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejileriyle iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketlerden faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n kritik bir dengede oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme revizyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ima edilen volatilitesi belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselir. Fed\u2019in aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %73 iken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki olas\u0131 bir i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131k Sterlin\u2019i h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 1,3369\u2019daki hareketli ortalama destek k\u00fcmesine geri itebilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, k\u00fcresel enerji risklerini yukar\u0131 iten H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki t\u0131rmanan askeri gerilimi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Bu dar bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7erken, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki aksamalar ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 %10 ila %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, uzun GBP pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 enerji emtialar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla birle\u015ftirerek FX riskini hedge etmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafik, Sterlin\u2019in 1,3427\u2019deki trend \u00e7izgisi taban\u0131 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yap\u0131sal olarak y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 59,4 seviyesinde ve bu da paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket alan\u0131 bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3573\u2019e do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131lma hedefiyle, 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle al\u0131m yapman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir taktiksel hamle oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, ABD T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 1,35\u2019e yak\u0131n; \u00e7ekirdek %2,5\u2019e indi. Fed eyl\u00fclde %60 pas, aral\u0131kta %73 art\u0131\u015f. G\u00f6zler UK GSYH\u2019da; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski, teknik diren\u00e7 1,3573.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t