NZD\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5865 seviyesine gerileyerek seansta %0,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD enflasyon verileri FX piyasas\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki \u00fcretti. ABD T\u00dcFE, temmuzda hazirandaki %3,5\u2019ten y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4\u2019e gerilerken; fiyatlar \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5 ile beklentilere paralel geldi. Dolar\u0131n tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; DXY hafif gerilerken jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131: Reuters, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde Washington\u2013Tahran ate\u015fkesinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131; ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab el-Mandeb yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda gemi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler izlendi. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ise siyasi belirsizlik temkinlili\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131; Ba\u015fbakan Christopher Luxon, genel se\u00e7ime \u00fc\u00e7 aydan az s\u00fcre kala ve d\u00f6rt ay i\u00e7indeki ikinci liderlik meydan okumas\u0131n\u0131 atlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Grafik taraf\u0131nda parite 0,5864 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 0,5879\u2019daki 100-periyot SMA ve 0,5878\u2019deki 200-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutunuyor; yak\u0131n destek 0,5860 seviyesinde, RSI (14) ise 43\u2019te. Diren\u00e7 0,5878 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5879\u2019da; devam\u0131nda 0,5909 ve 0,5930 seviyeleri izleniyor. 0,5860 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 0,5825 ve 0,5760\u2019a do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, ayr\u0131 bir model \u00f6nc\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunu ayl\u0131k %0,18\u2019e i\u015faret etti; \u00dcFE\u2019nin (PPI) bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 0,5865\u2019e gerileyen NZD\/USD \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmaya odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi ve 0,5879 civar\u0131nda 100 ve 200-periyot SMA\u2019larda yer alan diren\u00e7 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,5825 hedefli kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk \u00fcstlenmeden k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4\u2019te ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5\u2019te yatay seyretmesi, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131, USD ili\u015fkili paritelerde iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejiler kurmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak piyasan\u0131n bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini %50 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu da opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini daha k\u00e2rl\u0131 h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcregelen gerilim ve yakla\u015fan genel se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki i\u00e7 siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. G\u00fcvenli liman talebinde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksamalar\u0131 gibi benzer jeopolitik krizlerde, sermayenin g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelmesiyle DXY\u2019nin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019nin 0,5860 yak\u0131n deste\u011finin alt\u0131na inmesi durumunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 0,5760 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ivmelenebilir. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artmadan \u00f6nce pozisyonlar\u0131 ayarlamak ad\u0131na yakla\u015fan \u00dcFE (PPI) verisinin yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. 0,5880 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde stop-loss emirleri kullanmak, olas\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZD\/USD 0,5865\u2019e geriledi; ABD T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrpriz yaratmay\u0131nca dolar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi. Jeopolitik ve NZ siyasi riskleri bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. 0,5860 destek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,5825\/0,5760 g\u00fcndemde; 0,5878-0,5879 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t