Japon Yeni, Temmuz ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin genel olarak beklentilere paralel gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir miktar geri \u00e7ekildi. USD\/JPY, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 158,58 seviyesindeki dipten sonra 159,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE, Haziran\u2019daki %0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Temmuz\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artt\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e geriledi. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, Haziran\u2019daki yatay seyrin ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek oran %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n\n
Veri sonras\u0131 faiz beklentileri daha da de\u011fi\u015fti ve Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha zay\u0131f tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verilerini izleyen yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki %44\u2019ten %38\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken, Dolar ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131smen telafi etti; DXY, 99,61 seviyesindeki dipten sonra 99,82\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Reuters, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130ran\u2013ABD g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u00d6te yandan Japon para birimi, ABD\u2013Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahalesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri vermi\u015f durumda; Japonya ve ABD\u2019den \u00dcFE verileri Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,20 civar\u0131nda, kritik 160 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son derece temkinli hareket etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %3,4\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yumu\u015fatarak dolar\u0131n dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Dolar\u2019da agresif y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bizce USD\/JPY al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek ani bir m\u00fcdahale. Tarihsel verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japonya 2024 ortas\u0131nda yeni savunmak i\u00e7in bu seviyelere yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131. Yetkililerin yeniden ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,82 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, prim toplamak i\u00e7in bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejileri de de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Kurun 160 seviyesine yeniden yakla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, ima edilen volatilitenin s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da straddle gibi opsiyon al\u0131m stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, fiyat hedeflerini g\u00fcncellemek ad\u0131na yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ve Japonya \u00dcFE verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yaln\u0131zca %38 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesi nedeniyle, tahvil getirilerinin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Getirilerde ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu t\u00fcr hedge\u2019li i\u015flemlere odaklanarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemdeki yo\u011fun siyasi ve ekonomik belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda daha kontroll\u00fc ilerlenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 Yen solukland\u0131: USD\/JPY 159,20\u2019de, 160 e\u015fi\u011fi radar\u0131nda. Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %38\u2019e indi. M\u00fcdahale riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; put opsiyonlar\u0131, range stratejileri, \u00dcFE takibi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t