ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u201ctam kontrol\u201d sahibi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; bunu, Basra K\u00f6rfezi yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki Amerikan deniz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u00e7elikten bir duvar\u201d olarak niteleyerek gerek\u00e7elendirdi. Trump, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n buna kar\u015f\u0131 koymas\u0131n\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131z k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131 ve \u201cSan\u0131r\u0131m bunu elimizde tutaca\u011f\u0131z\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mda Trump, \u0130ran ordusunun i\u00e7inin bo\u015falt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek \u00fclkenin \u201cDonanmas\u0131 yok\u201d ve \u201cHava Kuvvetleri yok\u201d oldu\u011funu, kalan askerlerin ise maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denmedi\u011fini iddia etti. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (IRGC) \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve \u0130ran liderli\u011finin \u201cen iyi ihtimalle belirsiz\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ekonomi taraf\u0131nda ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cparas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d savundu; enflasyonun \u201c%300\u201d ve y\u00fckseli\u015fte oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerken, gerilime ili\u015fkin \u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u201csahte haber\u201d olarak niteledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ok konu\u015fup hi\u00e7 i\u015f yapmamakla\u201d su\u00e7lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6netimin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u201ctam kontrol\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddial\u0131 s\u00f6yleminin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir zemin olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u201c\u00c7elikten bir duvar\u201d ifadesi b\u00f6lgesel istikrar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rsa da, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde olas\u0131 bir misilleme kaynakl\u0131 s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme petrol piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131kta ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Piyasan\u0131n bu agresif jeopolitik duru\u015fu fiyatlamas\u0131yla ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye aday oldu\u011fu k\u0131sa vadeli Brent petrol opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik bo\u011fazda jeopolitik gerilimler sert ancak ge\u00e7ici fiyat tepkileri yarat\u0131r. 2019\u2019un sonlar\u0131ndaki tanker kaynakl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar gibi \u00f6nceki t\u0131rmanmalarda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tek bir i\u015flem seans\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131ktan sonra ortalamaya geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n nihai y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan keskin fiyat hareketlerinden gelir elde etmeyi hedefleyen WTI kontratlar\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karsa da, veriler \u0130ran ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varilin \u00fczeriyle \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu hacmin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u00c7inli rafinerilere gitti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir abluka veya ani bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, bu varilleri k\u00fcresel arzdan derhal \u00e7\u0131kararak fiziksel piyasalarda anl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7abilir. K\u00fcresel a\u011f\u0131r ham petrol arz\u0131nda olas\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in \u0131s\u0131nma ya\u011f\u0131 ve benzin vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,4 milyon varille rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyreden ABD ham petrol \u00fcretimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yurt i\u00e7i petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 arz, jeopolitik bask\u0131n\u0131n WTI\u2019a k\u0131yasla Brent \u00fczerinde daha fazla hissedilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, Brent-WTI spread i\u015flemleriyle faydalanmas\u0131n\u0131; risk primindeki geni\u015flemeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in Brent al\u0131p WTI satmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u201ctam kontrol\u201d iddias\u0131yla tansiyonu y\u00fckseltti. Bu s\u00f6ylem enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir. Brent opsiyonlar\u0131, WTI long straddle ve Brent-WTI spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t