Euro \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti; EUR\/GBP paritesi iki seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,8540 civar\u0131nda gezindi. Sterlin g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde iki haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rse de, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131na i\u015faret eden ve enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steren T\u00dcFE verisi sonras\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. \u00c7apraz kur, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH raporu \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon almas\u0131yla haftaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; ancak dokuz \u00fcyeli Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyesi, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon risklerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin Haziran\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,4 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu oran ilk \u00e7eyrekteki %0,6\u2019dan yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise Mart\u2019taki %0,9\u2019a k\u0131yasla %1,1 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Grafiklerde EUR\/GBP, 0,8551\u2019deki 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 0,8554\u2019teki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 39 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 0,8541 ve 0,8545\u2019te k\u00fcmelenirken, destek 0,8534 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,8532 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n, 13 A\u011fustos\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH verisi \u00f6ncesinde, kritik 0,8540 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren EUR\/GBP paritesinde anl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k bekliyoruz. GSYH\u2019nin \u00e7eyreklik bazda tahmin edilen %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamas\u0131 sterlini dengede tutabilir; ancak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sapma sert pozisyon tasfiyelerini veya h\u0131zl\u0131 rallileri tetikleyecektir. Parite 20 ve 100 periyotluk hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, teknik olarak en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/GBP\u2019de ima edilen volatilite, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrprizlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde tarihsel olarak ortalama %15 ila %25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filiminde. GSYH verisinin %0,4 tahminini ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, kurun h\u0131zla 0,8554 diren\u00e7 seviyesine y\u00f6nelmesiyle kayda de\u011fer getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, veri beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lar veya a\u015farsa, 0,8532 destek taban\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek EUR\/GBP vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon ya da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son d\u00f6nemde Euro\u2019yu yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mayan inat\u00e7\u0131 Alman enflasyon verilerinin tek para birimindeki altta yatan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmesiyle de destekleniyor. Euro lehine beklenmedik bir geli\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 0,8551 e\u015fi\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6zellikle BoE\u2019nin politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131yla belirginle\u015fen daha geni\u015f makroekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izlemek gerekecek. Tarihsel veriler, \u00fc\u00e7 veya daha fazla MPC \u00fcyesinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde sterlinin takip eden ayda Euro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama %1,2 oran\u0131nda daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bu ortamda, sonbahar boyunca EUR\/GBP\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend i\u00e7in sonbahar vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyonlanma olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/GBP 0,8540\u2019ta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Almanya T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 sterlin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 verdi, g\u00f6zler yar\u0131nki \u00f6nc\u00fc \u0130ngiltere GSYH\u2019sinde. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131; s\u00fcrprizde sert oynakl\u0131k, straddle\/put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t