EUR\/USD, Enflasyon ve Jeopolitik Risklerin Dengelenmesiyle Yatay Seyirde<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1550 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve %0,08 y\u00fckseldi. ABD enflasyon verisi etraf\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli oynakl\u0131k alevlenmesi s\u00f6nd\u00fckten sonra parite, veri \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. ABD T\u00dcFE, temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hazirandaki %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilerken; ayl\u0131k bazda daha \u00f6nceki %0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar %0,1 artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5 y\u00fckselerek beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; bu da USD tepkisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131rken DXY\u2019nin hafif gerilemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa\u2019da Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE\u2019si (HICP) temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 ile hazirandaki %2,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enerji enflasyonu %2,7\u2019den %7,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rarken, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 oran %2,5\u2019ten %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma anlat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak euronun deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab el-Mendeb yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bildirilen gemi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve mevcut ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin olmamas\u0131yla yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ayr\u0131ca Trump\u2019\u0131n tazminat talep etmesi etkili oldu. Teknik olarak EUR\/USD 1,1546\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 100 periyotluk SMA 1,1541 ve 200 periyotluk SMA 1,1533 seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, RSI 60,75\u2019te. Diren\u00e7 1,1560 ard\u0131ndan 1,1581\u2019de; destek ise 1,1541\/1,1533, 1,1515, 1,1500 ve 1,1480 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD enflasyonunun %3,4\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Almanya enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ECB\u2019den beklenen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin kar\u015f\u0131t etkilerinin pariteyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir aral\u0131kta tutmas\u0131 muhtemel. Tarihsel olarak bu iki fakt\u00f6r \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda EUR\/USD ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu da iron condor gibi k\u0131sa oynakl\u0131k (short-volatility) stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getirir.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli taktik i\u015flemler i\u00e7in, 1,1530 ve 1,1580\u2019deki yak\u0131n teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (defined-risk) stratejiler kurmak \u00fczere kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 1,1500\u2019deki yap\u0131sal deste\u011fin alt\u0131na out-of-the-money put yazarken, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 1,1600 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde call satabilir. Bu kurgu, piyasan\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki mevcut jeopolitik \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (theta) prim toplamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
Bab el-Mendeb ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda t\u0131rmanan gerilim nedeniyle riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n aniden s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer jeopolitik alevlenmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD risk reversal, ima edilen oynakl\u0131kta %0,75\u2019in \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ABD Dolar\u0131 call\u2019lar\u0131na do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1,1500 alt\u0131na olas\u0131 ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, risk b\u00fct\u00e7esinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, out-of-the-money EUR put opsiyonlar\u0131na ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1550\u2019de yatay: ABD T\u00dcFE %3,4\u2019e inerken Almanya HICP %2,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi ve jeopolitik riskler dengeledi. Range opsiyonlar\u0131 (iron condor), 1,1530-1,1580 taktik b\u00f6lge; OTM put\u2019la hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t