Alt\u0131n, erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyarak 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Petrol ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Bab\u00fclmendep\u2019teki sald\u0131r\u0131lar sava\u015f riski primlerini ve enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, daha zay\u0131f istihdam piyasas\u0131 sinyalleri faiz beklentileriyle yar\u0131\u015fsa da, bu tablo ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tuttu; CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor. Jeopolitik gerilim de devam etti: Kuzey Kore, G\u00fcney Kore-ABD ortak tatbikatlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlat\u0131rken, Tayvan \u00c7in ve bir Endonezya sava\u015f gemisini i\u00e7eren planl\u0131 deniz tatbikatlar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) \u00e7evresinde dalgalan\u0131yor; ancak Nisan\u2013Haziran d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %50,0 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi ve 4.500,51 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya kadar uzanan diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. Destek 4.388,33 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da; bunun ard\u0131ndan 4.298,48 dolardaki %38,2 d\u00fczeltme ve 4.161,40 dolardaki %23,6 seviyesi geliyor. Bunun alt\u0131nda ise odak 3.939,81 dolara kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE raporu \u00f6ncesinde temkinli olmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) taraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n \u015fu anda 4.388,33 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyrederken, y\u00fcksek (s\u0131cak) bir enflasyon verisi 4.298,48 dolardaki %38,2 Fibonacci destek seviyesine do\u011fru sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, metalin 4.500,51 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direnci kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, k\u0131r\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neririz.<\/p>\n\n
Normalde d\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji krizlerinden elde edilen tarihsel veriler, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n emtialarda uzun soluklu ralli yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; nitekim 1970\u2019lerin sonundaki petrol arz kesintileri, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde %300\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de jeopolitik tansiyon t\u0131rman\u0131rken, artan sava\u015f riski primlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in portf\u00f6ylerin ham petrol \u00fczerinde uzun (long) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n dolar ile geleneksel ters korelasyonuna ra\u011fmen, Asya\u2019da artan g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 (Kuzey Kore\u2019nin son f\u00fcze denemeleriyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan) nedeniyle her iki varl\u0131k birlikte y\u00fckseliyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde %75 olarak g\u00f6stermesiyle, ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu karma\u015f\u0131k ortamda, ani piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in n\u00f6trden y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz: ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131rken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak alt\u0131n straddle pozisyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini T\u00dcFE\u2019ye tuttu: Alt\u0131n 4.400$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde, 4.500$ direncine s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz beklentileri bozulunca petrol zirvede. Y\u00fcksek getiriler dolar\u0131 desteklerken, opsiyonla temkinli hedge \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t