{"id":52668,"date":"2026-08-12T04:22:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T04:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-dolari-ve-hazine-tahvillerini-korumak-icin-euro-satarak-yeni-destekliyor-ecb-hazirliksiz-yakalandi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T04:22:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T04:22:00","slug":"abd-dolari-ve-hazine-tahvillerini-korumak-icin-euro-satarak-yeni-destekliyor-ecb-hazirliksiz-yakalandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-dolari-ve-hazine-tahvillerini-korumak-icin-euro-satarak-yeni-destekliyor-ecb-hazirliksiz-yakalandi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD, dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvillerini korumak i\u00e7in euro satarak yeni destekliyor; ECB haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD, Japon yenini desteklemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahalede bulundu; ancak dolar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yen almak yerine, dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatmamak ve ABD Hazine piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla Hazine euro kulland\u0131. Financial Times, operasyonun Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin ancak hamle sonras\u0131 bilgilendirildi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Yap\u0131 \u00f6nemliydi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc geleneksel yen destek m\u00fcdahaleleri Japonya\u2019y\u0131 dolar bulmak i\u00e7in ABD Hazine tahvillerini satmaya zorlayabilir, bu da fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, getirileri yukar\u0131 iter. \u00dcstelik ABD\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rda faiz gideri y\u0131ll\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n

Japonya aylard\u0131r m\u00fcdahalede bulunuyor. May\u0131s\u2019ta d\u00f6viz rezervleri 75,6 milyar dolar geriledi; Bloomberg bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde o ayki yen destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla uyumlu oldu\u011funu belirtirken, Fed\u2019in saklama verileri Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Hazine tahvili varl\u0131klar\u0131nda tasfiyeye i\u015faret etti. Do\u011frudan Hazine tahvili sat\u0131\u015f ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in Japon yetkililer, gelecekteki i\u015flemlerde Mart 2020\u2019de olu\u015fturulan Fed\u2019in Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu mekanizma, Hazine tahvili teminat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yedi g\u00fcne kadar dolar bor\u00e7 veriyor; vade uzat\u0131m\u0131 (rollover) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Makale, bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131; \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinde ABD Hazine tahvillerini kullanmadaki k\u0131s\u0131tlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 dahil rezerv \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesine ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD Tahvil Piyasas\u0131nda Stres ve Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Hazine\u2019nin bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahale stratejisinin, ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131nda altta yatan ciddi stresin sinyalini verdi\u011fini kabul etmeliyiz. ABD ulusal borcu 35 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015fken ve y\u0131ll\u0131k net faiz \u00f6demeleri 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken, h\u00fck\u00fcmet daha y\u00fcksek uzun vadeli getirilere katlanamaz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olarak, getiri e\u011frisinin uzun ucunda artacak oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ani faiz s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na hedge amac\u0131yla Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in dolar yerine euro satma karar\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir denge oyununa i\u015faret ediyor ve bundan faydalanabiliriz. Euro \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 Hazine tahvili likidasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sadece ge\u00e7ici olarak \u00f6teledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, USD\/JPY oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz; bu da long straddle stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Rezerv \u00c7e\u015fitlendirmesi ve Getiri E\u011frisi Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

K\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131, dolar likiditesinin art\u0131k ko\u015fulsuz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fark ettik\u00e7e alternatif rezervlere y\u00f6nelim h\u0131zlanacak. \u0130statistikler, son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; rezerv \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a bu trend daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ivmesini yakalamak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n call opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, yabanc\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin Hazine tahvillerini do\u011frudan satmas\u0131n\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde getiriler \u00fczerindeki yapay tavan eninde sonunda piyasa g\u00fc\u00e7lerine yenik d\u00fc\u015fer. ABD borcundaki yabanc\u0131 resm\u00ee pay\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azal\u0131rken, \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar devasa yeni Hazine ihra\u00e7 arz\u0131n\u0131 sindirmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir risk primi talep edecektir. Uzun vadeli Hazine ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu alarak getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine (steepening) y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Perde arkas\u0131nda ABD, yen\u2019i dolar satmadan euro ile destekleyip Hazine faiz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; ECB sonradan haberdar oldu. Japonya FIMA repo ile sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ertelerken volatilite art\u0131yor: EUR\/USD put, USD\/JPY straddle, alt\u0131n call, uzun tahvil ETF put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t