ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD temmuz T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi \u00f6ncesinde 100,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti. Beklentiler, hazirana k\u0131yasla y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daha yumu\u015fak bir okumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Wall Street sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapan\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin bir miktar gerilemesi dolarda temkinli havay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede, \u0130ran G\u00fcvenlik \u015eefi Mohsen Rezai, ABD\u2019ye sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yerine getirmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; bu ko\u015fullar aras\u0131nda bloke edilen \u0130ran fon ve varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ile Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 zararlar\u0131n tazmini yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
G10 taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD, piyasalar\u0131n Almanya\u2019n\u0131n temmuz Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (HICP) beklemesiyle 1,1540 civar\u0131nda tutundu. USD\/JPY, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n etkisi azald\u0131ktan sonra 159,00 seviyesinin alt band\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yatay seyrederken, AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faizi %4,35\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7060 \u00e7evresinde kald\u0131. USD\/CAD, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n (CAD) g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrolden destek bulmas\u0131yla iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Alt\u0131n, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar civar\u0131ndaki iki ayl\u0131k zirvesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 kapal\u0131yken WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83,30 dolara do\u011fru hafif y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalma durumunun a\u011fustos ortas\u0131na uzamas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde s\u00fcren volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik g\u00fczerg\u00e2hta ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klar, tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. 83,30 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde olu\u015fabilecek olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman talebinin alt\u0131n\u0131 ons ba\u015f\u0131na benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f 4.400 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n tutmas\u0131yla, de\u011ferli metal ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. \u0130ma edilen volatilitenin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ortamda, basit y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler y\u00fcksek opsiyon primleri nedeniyle maliyetli olabilir. Bunun yerine, prim erimesini (time decay) s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bull vertical spread stratejisinin tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100,00 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, enflasyon beklentilerinin so\u011fumas\u0131yla dolar \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yakla\u015fan makro veriler bu yumu\u015fama e\u011filimini teyit ederse, Federal Rezerv\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yo\u011fun bir bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrebilecek dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak ad\u0131na 1,1540 \u00fczerinde EUR\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan USD\/JPY, \u00f6nceki piyasa m\u00fcdahalelerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flatamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 159,00 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide oldu. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerine ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, resmi ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman e\u015flik eden para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri olmaks\u0131z\u0131n uzun vadeli trendleri tersine \u00e7evirmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in bu paritede k\u0131sa vadeli bear put spread stratejisiyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de: DXY 100 alt\u0131nda temkinli. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi petrol\u00fc 83,30\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken alt\u0131n 4.400\u2019a yak\u0131n. Strateji: WTI long call, alt\u0131nda bull spread; EUR\/USD call, USD\/JPY bear put spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t