ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak yak\u0131n vadeli bir anla\u015fma ihtimali, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu tazminat \u00f6denmesi de dahil baz\u0131 \u015fartlar \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmesi ve ABD taraf\u0131n\u0131n buna, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ma\u011fdurlar\u0131na tazminat \u00f6denmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yeni bir \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesinin ard\u0131ndan azald\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim petrol piyasalar\u0131nda bir \u201c\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma primi\u201d olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arken, rafineri kesintilerine ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 da tansiyonu art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol %5 y\u00fckseldi ve bu sabah itibar\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 ABD dolar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131; temmuz sonundan bu yana ilk kez bu seviyeye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Gazya\u011f\u0131 (gasoil) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket ederek neredeyse %10 art\u0131\u015fla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1.350 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye nisan sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Bu s\u0131rada gasoil crack spread\u2019i yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Rusya ve Libya\u2019daki rafinerilere y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile halihaz\u0131rda s\u0131k\u0131 olan dizel arz\u0131, Avrupa do\u011frudan etkilenmese bile k\u00fcresel dizel eri\u015filebilirli\u011fini daraltarak ralliyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimin kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesiyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi ve gasoil\u2019in ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1.350 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlarda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunan bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar, ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinde \u00e7ift haneli y\u00fczdesel art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesini tetikledi.<\/p>\n
Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolar kritik e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan gasoil crack spread\u2019inde uzun (long) pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Rusya, Suudi Arabistan ve Libya genelindeki rafinerilere y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcregelen \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, k\u00fcresel rafinaj kapasitesi \u00fczerinde yap\u0131sal bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olu\u015fturuyor. Daha \u00f6nceki rafinaj krizlerinde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 2022 sonundaki arz \u015foklar\u0131nda Avrupa dizel crack spread\u2019leri ortalama 50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken\u2014spread geni\u015flemesini ta\u015f\u0131yan t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 kayda de\u011fer kazan\u00e7lar elde etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin y\u00fcksek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Taraflar\u0131n y\u00fcksek tazminat taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcndeme getirmesi, enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde ima edilen volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik restle\u015fmelerde petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem hacmi geleneksel olarak %30\u2019a varan oranlarda artar; bu da pozisyon a\u00e7ma ve kapamada likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 elveri\u015fli k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Avrupa dizel piyasalar\u0131 yerel rafineri kesintilerinden do\u011frudan etkilenmese de, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. K\u0131\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015flarken Avrupa\u2019da olas\u0131 bir arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla ICE gasoil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem verileri, ba\u015fl\u0131ca i\u015flem merkezlerinde k\u00fcresel dizel stoklar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ilave arz kesintilerinde tamponun neredeyse bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de anla\u015fma umudu tazminat restle\u015fmesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131; petrol piyasas\u0131na \u201c\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma primi\u201d yerle\u015fti. Brent %5\u2019le 90 dolara, gasoil %10\u2019la 1.350 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131; crack spread 70\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Opsiyon ve long pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t