{"id":52655,"date":"2026-08-12T00:52:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T00:52:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolar-endeksi-tufe-ufe-ve-fed-fiyatlamasinin-kirilma-riskini-artirmasiyla-9980-civarinda-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T00:52:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T00:52:21","slug":"dolar-endeksi-tufe-ufe-ve-fed-fiyatlamasinin-kirilma-riskini-artirmasiyla-9980-civarinda-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-endeksi-tufe-ufe-ve-fed-fiyatlamasinin-kirilma-riskini-artirmasiyla-9980-civarinda-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Endeksi, T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve Fed fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lma riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla 99,80 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dolar Endeksi, temmuz sonundan bu yana 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,50) \u00fczerinde ve 100,00 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015farak 99,80 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti; hareket alan\u0131 0,2 puan\u0131n da alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veriler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00f6n sundu: \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131nda d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalama 11 binden 8,25 bine yava\u015flarken, ikinci el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 geriledi. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 ince bir dengede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; vadeli kontratlar 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50,1, 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m ihtimalini ise %49,9 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den Temmuz 2027\u2019ye uzanan sekiz ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasa faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %0,0 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ilk s\u0131f\u0131r-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 okuma Eyl\u00fcl 2027\u2019de %0,5. En olas\u0131 patika ise ilkbahara kadar faizin 25 baz puan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Odak enflasyon ve b\u00fct\u00e7e verilerine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Piyasa beklentisi, temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e, \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,2 gelmesi bekleniyor. 2\u00c7 verimlilik verileri, birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerini y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %1,3; katma de\u011fer \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 deflat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc %7,0 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, emek pay\u0131 1947\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:15 GMT ve 12:40\u2019ta iki Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 konu\u015facak. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinin, \u00f6nceki 120 milyar dolara k\u0131yasla 346 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi bekleniyor; i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 199 binden 202 bine, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar %0,2\u2019den %0,1\u2019e, Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi 55,2\u2019den 54,5\u2019e \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon beklentileri daha \u00f6nce bir y\u0131ll\u0131kta %4,2, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131kta %3,3\u2019t\u00fc. Teknik tarafta 100,00 seviyesi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; \u00fczerinde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,25) ve temmuz sonu zirvesi (101,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczeri) bulunuyor. Destek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,50) ve 99,45 civar\u0131ndaki dipler; ard\u0131ndan 99,00 ve 98,50 seviyeleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar Endeksi: Dar Bant ve Yak\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131lma Riskleri<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izlemek gerekiyor. Endeks halihaz\u0131rda 99,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 99,50 ile 100,00 seviyesi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. 16 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 ile 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f aras\u0131nda kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla 50\/50\u2019ye oturmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc bu haftaki verilere son derece duyarl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu kadar dar (iki onda birlik) bant s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon, Jeopolitik ve Dolar G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn, temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131nav var; yar\u0131n ise piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9 ile belirgin \u015fekilde daha s\u0131cak bir \u00dcFE\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu geni\u015f fark; tarife kanal\u0131 ve jeopolitik bask\u0131lar\u0131n, \u015fimdilik t\u00fcketiciye tam yans\u0131maktan ziyade \u015firket marjlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan emildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yar\u0131n \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek gelirse, \u00f6zellikle veriye yak\u0131n saatlerde iki b\u00f6lgesel Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n konu\u015facak olmas\u0131yla birlikte haftan\u0131n en net \u201c\u015fahin\u201d senaryosu olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131k dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00f6nlendirmedi\u011fini de not etmek gerekiyor. Bunun yerine t\u0131rmanma man\u015fetleri Brent petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itiyor; varil fiyat\u0131 78 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimleri destek buluyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede jeopolitik risk, dolara art\u0131k daha dolayl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u2014enflasyon aktar\u0131m kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden\u2014 ula\u015f\u0131yor; bu da haftan\u0131n toptan fiyat verilerini daha kritik hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00e7evresindeki 99,50 destek band\u0131 korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli piyasalar\u0131n 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini s\u0131f\u0131r fiyatlamas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizinin dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir s\u00fcrprizin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in daha net bir alan b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yukar\u0131da 100,00 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,25) diren\u00e7leri hedeflenebilir; risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 99,45 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi olarak izlenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar Endeksi 99,50\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda nefesini tutmu\u015fken kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma kap\u0131da: T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE ve Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl FOMC\u2019yi 50\/50 fiyatl\u0131yor; 99,45 alt\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t