USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; yen, paritenin Japonya\u2019n\u0131n para birimini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 159,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Fiyat hareketi, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Grafiklerde parite 159,24 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 20 periyotluk SMA olan 158,63\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI ise 61 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Yak\u0131n destek 159,14 ve 158,95 seviyelerinde, bir sonraki destek ise 158,81\u2019de i\u015faretlenirken; diren\u00e7 159,40 seviyesinde ve 100 periyotluk SMA olan 160,83\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n G\u00fcvenlik \u015eefi Mohsen Rezai, arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye iletildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131ralad\u0131; bunlar aras\u0131nda sava\u015f\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bloke edilmi\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. Rezai ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2013Umman d\u00fczenlemesinin, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 meselesinden ayr\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evriliyor; Temmuz enflasyonunun Haziran\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda gelmesi beklenirken, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin son m\u00fcdahalelerinin etkisinin h\u0131zla s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesiyle USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2024\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 9,8 trilyon yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahalenin tarihsel verileri, resm\u00ee piyasa giri\u015flerinin uzun vadeli makroekonomik trendleri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde nadiren tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Parite 158,63\u2019teki teknik deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam dururken, 160,83 seviyesini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine ivme kat\u0131yor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik sert talepleri enerji koridorlar\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 olan Japonya ekonomisi \u00fczerinde tarihsel olarak belirgin bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcterek yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Bu daha geni\u015f yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalan\u0131rken ani volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ana piyasa kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc, man\u015fet enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde %2,9\u2019a gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisi. Daha yumu\u015fak bir enflasyon okumasi Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz beklentilerini ge\u00e7ici olarak dizginleyebilse de, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmenin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, 159,14\u2019teki kritik destek k\u00fcmelenmesi civar\u0131nda uzun USD\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturarak olas\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu unsurlar\u0131n kesi\u015fiminden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) tercih ediyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011finden, kritik enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde primli al\u0131mlar cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor; sevkiyatta ya\u015fanacak herhangi bir fiziksel aksama k\u00fcresel risk dinamiklerini an\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" M\u00fcdahale etkisi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor: USD\/JPY 159 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; petrol ve jeopolitik riskler yen\u2019i zorluyor. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 158,63 destek, 160,83 hedef. Opsiyonda bull call spread \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t