Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA), rekorunun alt\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 seans s\u00fcren s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 54.200 seviyesini a\u015fsa da, hareketin tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 54.000\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda kapand\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k 370 puana yakla\u015fan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i banda ra\u011fmen g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay tamamlad\u0131. 53.800 deste\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 seanst\u0131r test edildi ve korundu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair umutlar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 geriledi; \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, Umman ile yeni deniz rotalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fman\u0131n su yolunu yeniden a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, eri\u015fimin ABD\u2019nin tutumuna ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, deniz \u015fartlar\u0131, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u00e7ekilmesi, sava\u015f hasar\u0131 \u00f6demeleri ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi daha geni\u015f taleplere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ham petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 83,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6sterge 88 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu; faiz piyasas\u0131 daha sert tepki verdi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi, Cuma sabah\u0131 4,61 civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yeniden %4,72\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinde NFIB endeksi Temmuz\u2019da 2,4 puan artarak 99,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; 52 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve A\u011fustos 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede. Sahiplerin net %20\u2019si istihdam yaratmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor; bu da Ekim 2022\u2019den beri en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oran. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ADP d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 11 binden 8,25 bine geriledi ve Temmuz istihdam\u0131 80 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 23 bin darald\u0131; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek pandemi d\u00f6nemi hari\u00e7 1976\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Haziran i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 720 bin ki\u015finin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %4,2\u2019ye geriledi. Haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde \u00c7ar\u015famba Temmuz T\u00dcFE (ayl\u0131k %0,1; Haziran\u2019da %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019ten %3,5\u2019e; \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k %0,2; %0,0\u2019dan ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5; %2,6\u2019dan) ve 18:00 GMT\u2019de b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi (120 milyar dolara kar\u015f\u0131 346 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi) bulunuyor. Per\u015fembe \u00dcFE (ayl\u0131k %0,2; %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9; %5,5\u2019ten; \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2; %4,7\u2019den) ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (202 bin; 199 bine kar\u015f\u0131), Cuma ise perakende sat\u0131\u015flar (ayl\u0131k %0,1; %0,2\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131), Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi (55,2\u2019den 54,5\u2019e) ve enflasyon beklentileri (1 y\u0131l %4,2 ve 5 y\u0131l %3,3) izlenecek. Teknik seviyelerde 54.200 ard\u0131ndan 54.500 diren\u00e7, 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki rekor seviye \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; 53.800 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 53.500\u2019\u00fc hedefleyebilir, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise 52.200 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si bu kritik bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor; bu da uzayan kesintilerin Brent petrol\u00fc 88 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekli tutaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in ham petrolde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya enerji odakl\u0131 hisselerde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi \u015fu an s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; 54.200 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lamazken 53.800 destek seviyesini sert bi\u00e7imde savunuyor. Endeks bu taban\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 seanst\u0131r ba\u015far\u0131yla test etti\u011finden taktiksel bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 korunabilir; ancak riskin kesin bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 gerekir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 53.800 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zla y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip 53.500\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hedeflemek \u00fczere sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili piyasa, bu enerji risklerini hisse senetlerinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlayarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizini yeniden %4,72\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde petrol \u015foklar\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 faiz indirimlerini ertelemeye hatta daha fazla art\u0131r\u0131ma zorlad\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek faizlere pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in ABD tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon veya uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmelerin i\u015fe al\u0131m planlar\u0131 ile fiili istihdam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi aras\u0131nda belirgin bir kopukluk g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; istihdam 23 bin azal\u0131rken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m %61,5\u2019te. Tarihsel olarak daralan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc, \u00fccretleri yapay bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek tutar ve parasal gev\u015feme patikas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri, bu belirsizli\u011fin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgal\u0131 yatay seyrinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor gibi piyasa-n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri \u00f6nemli volatilite tetikleyicileri olacak; ancak yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde petrol\u00fcn 83 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz yans\u0131tmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir. Zay\u0131f bir enflasyon verisinin tetikledi\u011fi olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici piyas\u0430 rallisi, enerji maliyetleri Eyl\u00fcl verilerine yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilir. Y\u00f6n riskine maruz kalmadan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejisi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DJIA 54.200\u2019\u00fc a\u015fsa da 54.000 alt\u0131nda kapand\u0131; 53.800 destek kritik. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi petrol\u00fc 83\/88$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutup risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rd\u0131, ABD 10Y %4,72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t