USD\/CAD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seans \u00fcst \u00fcste bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalarak 1,3930 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve iki ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Ancak hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla yeni bir ivme kazanamad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131nda; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Kanada taraf\u0131nda bu hafta yerel veri g\u00fcndemi sakin, bu da pariteyi emtia hareketlerine ve gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesi daha geni\u015f piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha hassas b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasalar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u0130ran ile Umman\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczenlemeye odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131yla oynak seyretti. Katar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ileri bir a\u015famaya ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 83,57 dolar zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 81,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftal\u0131k bazda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da seyretti. Bu, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Kanada Dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kilit bir unsur. TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2026 boyunca faizi %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan gelecek y\u0131l %2,75\u2019e d\u00f6nmesini bekliyor; Ocak ve Mart 2027 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kurum ayr\u0131ca petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normalle\u015fti\u011fini\u201d belirtirken, man\u015fet enflasyonu %1\u2013%3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n konumland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde artmas\u0131 muhtemel oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019de piyasa beklentisinden yaln\u0131zca %0,1\u2019lik bir sapma USD\/CAD paritesinde ortalama 40 piplik anl\u0131k bir harekete yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmak, nihai enflasyon verisi ne olursa olsun bu keskin ve ani k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 81,50 dolar seviyesinde oynak seyretti\u011fi ortamda, \u0130ran-Umman jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde sa\u011flanacak olas\u0131 bir ilerleme petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla 75 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekebilir. Kanada Dolar\u0131 enerji ihracat\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ham petroldeki bu potansiyel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturur. Petrol piyasalar\u0131nda ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spot seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne de bakmak gerekiyor: Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizi %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 yayg\u0131n beklenti. Bu, piyasalar\u0131n Fed cephesinde Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %50 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na k\u0131yasla olduk\u00e7a temkinli bir duru\u015f. Geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019de uzun vadeli bacakl\u0131 (long-legged) calendar bull spread stratejilerinin tercih edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de: USD\/CAD 1,3930\u2019da iki ay\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n; FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %50 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. WTI 81,50$ ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz jeopoliti\u011fi CAD\u2019i oynat\u0131yor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t