Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen tahminleri, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 2027 ortas\u0131nda 1,18\u2019e (\u00f6nceki 1,20\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize) ve 2027 sonunda 1,19\u2019a (\u00f6nceki 1,21\u2019e k\u0131yasla) ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bankan\u0131n senaryosu, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n hafiflemesiyle paritenin toparlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan izleyen \u00e7eyreklerde kademeli olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini varsay\u0131yor; dolar ise sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi temelinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ABD faiz patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlamalar\u0131n dolar i\u00e7in ilave bir bask\u0131 unsuru olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine de at\u0131fta bulunuluyor.<\/p>\n
Analiz, olas\u0131 hareketi ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felere ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde enflasyon risklerinin gerilemesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Makalede ayr\u0131ca, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi belirtilirken; FXStreet Insights Ekibi\u2019nin, kurum i\u00e7i ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131 analist katk\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f uzmanlardan se\u00e7ilmi\u015f piyasa g\u00f6zlemlerini derledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik bask\u0131lar\u0131n hafiflemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde kademeli bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymaya pozisyon almaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Euro h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,09 seviyesi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak tarihsel veriler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131yla bask\u0131lanan d\u00f6viz paritelerinin, arz endi\u015feleri giderildi\u011finde h\u0131zla ortalamaya d\u00f6nme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle daha uzun vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak bunu de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in zay\u0131flayan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ABD faiz beklentilerindeki gerilemeye de odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z; bu unsurlar dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Son enflasyon verilerinin so\u011fumas\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n 2026 sonundan \u00f6nce daha fazla Fed faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte, dolar ana b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorunu kaybediyor. De\u011fi\u015fen bu para politikas\u0131 zemini, mevcut fiyatlamalarla Euro lehine bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadlerini (bull call spread) olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi baz\u0131nda dolar, %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu prim, tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011ferleme d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, dolar bu t\u00fcr u\u00e7 seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 1,20\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n bir \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201de do\u011fru geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimi yakalamak i\u00e7in risk reversal stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, revize tahminlerimiz EUR\/USD\u2019nin 2027 ortas\u0131nda 1,18\u2019e ve 2027 sonunda 1,19\u2019a ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev stratejiler, ani ve sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan ziyade bu yava\u015f ve istikrarl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalayacak \u015fekilde kurgulanmal\u0131. Takvim spreadleri (calendar spread) kullan\u0131m\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekler i\u00e7in temel uzun Euro duru\u015fu korunurken istikrarl\u0131 zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (time decay) faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz revizyon: Commerzbank EUR\/USD hedefini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; 2027 ortas\u0131 1,18, y\u0131l sonu 1,19. \u0130ran gerilimi azal\u0131r, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa enflasyon riski d\u00fc\u015fer; Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131s\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t