EUR\/USD sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ge\u00e7en haftaki aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 1,1546 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kayda de\u011fer bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemin dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede dengelenmesiyle gelirken, piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Odak ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine kay\u0131yor; bu veri, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik Fed faiz beklentilerini etkileyebilir ve dolar\u0131n, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019nin bir sonraki y\u00f6n sinyalini belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite, kritik hareketli ortalamalar aras\u0131nda tutunarak k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc n\u00f6tr b\u0131rak\u0131rken, momentum g\u00f6stergeleri hafif pozitif tarafa i\u015faret ediyor. RSI 59 civar\u0131nda ve MACD pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fleri 1,1567\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; bir sonraki diren\u00e7 1,1630\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA. Destek 1,1468\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 1,1400 ve 1,1350 seviyelerinde. Commerzbank projeksiyonlar\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019yi 2027 ortas\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce 1,20 iken 1,18\u2019e; 2027 sonunda ise \u00f6nceki 1,21 tahminine k\u0131yasla 1,19\u2019a yerle\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sal\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1546 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 12 A\u011fustos 2026\u2019daki yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD enflasyon verileri bu paritede ortalama 60 ila 80 piplik anl\u0131k bir reaksiyonu tetikliyor. Bu nedenle, gecelik ta\u015f\u0131nan hedge edilmemi\u015f k\u0131sa opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 artan risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Parite 1,1567\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya devam ederken, demir kondor (iron condor) gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,1468\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA deste\u011fine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 1,1630\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, prim erimesinden (time decay) yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu strateji, tarihsel olarak a\u011fustosta i\u015flem hacimlerini y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 alt\u0131na \u00e7eken yaz sonu likidite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden de faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel t\u00fcrevleri tercih eden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. 1,1567 \u00fczerinde teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,1630\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli bo\u011fa call spread pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentiden s\u0131cak gelmesi durumunda, 1,1400 taban\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131, yerinde bir defansif hamle olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, makro dinamikler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi (PPP) priminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Federal Reserve\u2019in artan yap\u0131sal zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131yla faiz beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun Euro\u2019yu kademeli olarak yukar\u0131 itmesini bekliyoruz. Daha uzun vadeli LEAPS\u2019ler veya diyagonal takvim spread\u2019leri (diagonal calendar spreads) ile pozisyonlanmak, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu kademeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeden (drift) faydalanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: EUR\/USD 1,1546\u2019da yatay, dolar diplerine yak\u0131n. G\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve \u00e7ar\u015famba ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; Fed beklentileri y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek. Diren\u00e7 1,1567-1,1630; destek 1,1468.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t