Petrol, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemleri sorgulamas\u0131yla toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Brent be\u015finci seansta da y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara, yedi g\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI ise d\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 dolar ve ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n son iki seans\u0131nda toplam 3 dolar y\u00fckseldikten sonra bug\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 dolar artt\u0131; d\u00fcn 82,30 dolar\u0131 ve bug\u00fcn 84,60 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7ar\u015famba dip seviye 74,25 dolard\u0131; bir sonraki geri \u00e7ekilme (retracement) hedefi 86 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczeri. Ham petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, tahvil getirilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131; dolar\/yen, yeni destekleyici resmi \u00e7abalara ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,35\u2013159,40 band\u0131na t\u0131rmand\u0131. Euro, \u00f6nceki dip olan 1,1540 civar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1530\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n dip seviyesi 1,1500 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Sterlin 1,3530 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 1,35 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, destek 1,3485 ve diren\u00e7 1,3560 seviyelerine i\u015faret ediyor; ocak sonundaki 1,3870 zirvesi %61,8 geri \u00e7ekilme referans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131pa niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n \u015fekilde CAD1,3925 civar\u0131nda tutundu ve CAD1,3950\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler CAD1,3900, CAD1,3855 ve CAD1,3815\u2019in biraz \u00fczeri, 1 May\u0131s dibi ise CAD1,3550 civar\u0131nda. Avustralya dolar\u0131, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi %4,35\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7040 ile 0,7060\u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczeri aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %69\u2019a fiyatlarken bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta sonuna do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131k %46 idi. Geli\u015fen piyasalarda dolar\/Meksika pesosu MXN17,1355\u2013MXN17,15 civar\u0131nda seyretti; offshore yuan (CNH) taraf\u0131nda PBOC\u2019nin \u00f6nce CNY6,7884 ard\u0131ndan CNY6,7900 seviyesinden fixing yapmas\u0131yla kur CNH6,7420\u2013CNH6,7490 band\u0131nda hareket etti. Dolar, INR95,2875\u2013INR95,3750 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan INR95,4475\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; INR95,59 k\u0131sa vadeli risk seviyesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Hisse senetleri daha zay\u0131f seyrederken Nikkei %2 y\u00fckseldi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi %4,70\u2019i test etti; Avrupa\u2019da \u00f6nce 4\u20136 bp, ard\u0131ndan 2\u20135 bp hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; temmuz sonlar\u0131nda %4,75\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131n 4.313 dolardan 4.395 dolara toparland\u0131, 4.435 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan 4.357\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 65,15 dolardan 66,50 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 64,25\u2019e do\u011fru gev\u015fedi ve ard\u0131ndan 65 dolar civar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. ABD\u2019de ikinci el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 alt\u0131 ayda k\u00fcm\u00fclatif %4,2 geriledi; temmuz i\u00e7in %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyor ve odak temmuz T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi. Meksika\u2019da \u00fcretimin, may\u0131sta yakla\u015f\u0131k -%0,8\u2019in ard\u0131ndan haziranda %0,2 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ABD\u2019ye AI ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ihracat ocak\u2013may\u0131s 2026 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %84,5 artarak 105,8 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Tayvan, 2022\u2019de sekizinci s\u0131radayken Meksika\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 konumuna y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Brent 90, WTI 84,6; teknik hedef 86+. Getiriler %4,70, USD\/JPY 159,4\u2019te. AUD\/CAD uzun, alt\u0131nda bear put; MXN, AI ihracat\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\tPetrol, ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Yen Dinamikleri<\/h3>\n\nABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcphecilik nedeniyle Brent\u2019in 90 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi ve eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI\u2019\u0131n 84,60 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, bir sonraki teknik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olan 86 dolar civar\u0131 hedeflenerek WTI \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksini (OVX) yukar\u0131 iter; bu da straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nG\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerini %4,70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken, USD\/JPY paritesi m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin zirvesi olan 159,40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yen taraf\u0131nda daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; ancak olas\u0131 ani Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Japonya, 160 e\u015fi\u011fi yak\u0131n\u0131nda para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor d\u00fczeyde 9,8 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; bu da 160 seviyesini kritik bir \u201cson \u00e7izgi\u201d haline getiriyor.\n<\/figure>\n\n\n
Emtia Para Birimleri ve Alt\u0131nda F\u0131rsatlar, GO\u00dc Trendleri<\/h3>\n\nEmtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerine bakanlar i\u00e7in, knock-out forward\u2019lar \u00fczerinden Avustralya dolar\u0131 ve Kanada dolar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin tonda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d karar\u0131, bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %69\u2019a y\u00fckseltti; Kanada ise y\u00fckselen ham petrolden do\u011frudan faydalan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi ayarlamalar\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019de sert sal\u0131n\u0131mlar yaratabildi\u011finden, getiri farkla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in opsiyon spread\u2019leri ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir tercih olabilir.\n\nAlt\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 4.435 dolar ile zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi; bu tablo, ge\u00e7 giren uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n artan ABD Hazine getirileri nedeniyle anl\u0131k riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeltmeden faydalan\u0131rken uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentili vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonunu korumak i\u00e7in alt\u0131nda bear put spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler %4,7 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011finde, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klarda (alt\u0131n gibi) ge\u00e7ici sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fabilir; bu nedenle defansif bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerekli.\n\nGeli\u015fen piyasalarda Meksika pesosunda \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Tayvan kaynakl\u0131 AI donan\u0131m ihracat\u0131 bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye 105,8 milyar dolara s\u0131\u00e7rayarak otomotiv ihracat\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Teknoloji tedarik zincirlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel zemin sundu\u011fu bu ortamda, yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlarla geri \u00e7ekilmelerde peso al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2022\u2019de sekizinci s\u0131radayken Meksika\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselen Tayvan ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ticaret ili\u015fkisinin, pesoyu daha geni\u015f piyasa zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 nispeten korumas\u0131 muhtemel.\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n