Petrol ve Orta Do\u011fu Gerilimi Fed Beklentilerini Y\u00f6nlendirirken Alt\u0131n \u0130ki Ayl\u0131k Zirvede Duraklad\u0131<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, Asya i\u015flemlerinde 4.435 dolarla iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini test ettikten sonra Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fine ara verdi. Fiyat hareketi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimleri ve bunlar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz patikas\u0131na etkilerini takip etti. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.356 dolarl\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.397 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 80,80 dolara gerilerken, haftal\u0131k bazda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Katar, \u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131ndaki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ileri a\u015famada oldu\u011funu ve olumlu geri bildirim al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ancak \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin sava\u015f tazminat\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesi, dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131, askeri tehditlerin sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi talepleri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump da Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Truth Social payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda tazminat talep etti.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar, beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi; petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckselmesiyle enflasyon riskine yeniden odaklan\u0131ld\u0131. CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %49 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD), Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken son dip seviyelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Dikkatler, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (CPI) ve PCE\u2019ye girdi niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (PPI) \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.148 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.389 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; RSI\u2019\u0131n 66\u2019ya yak\u0131n seyri ve ADX\u2019in 30\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131, ivmenin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak trendin y\u00f6nl\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7 4.389 ve 4.435 dolarda; destek seviyeleri ise 4.351, 4.285, 4.238 ve 4.148 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.435 dolarla iki ay\u0131n zirvesine dokunup 4.397 dolar civar\u0131nda duraklarken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD CPI ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PPI verileri, sert fiyat hareketlerini tetikleyebilecek kritik kataliz\u00f6rler konumunda. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite (IV) genellikle %15 ila %20 artma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, \u015fu a\u015famada basit prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri son derece riskli.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; WTI ham petrol\u00fc bu hafta %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 80,80 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakereler bozulur ve petrol 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015farsa, y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %49\u2019un belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7ekebilir. Bu ortamda, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek ani \u015fahin (hawkish) alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in petrolde bull call spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya alt\u0131nda koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6neride bulunuyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) olan 4.389 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 66 ile y\u00fcksek (\u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f) b\u00f6lgede. Momentum y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ancak k\u0131sa vadeli konsolidasyona a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, 4.435 \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da 4.351 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkma senaryolar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu y\u00f6ns\u00fcz strateji, y\u00fcksek riskli jeopolitik gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert fiyat geni\u015flemesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.148 dolar seviyesindeki yap\u0131sal taban\u0131n, alt\u0131n bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u201cg\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmesi beklenebilir. Enflasyon verileri beklentiden yumu\u015fak gelir ve \u00e7ekirdek CPI i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,20 art\u0131\u015fla uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 azal\u0131r ve tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015febilir. Bu senaryoda, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devam hareketine haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in 4.285 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak biriktirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.435 dolarla iki ay\u0131n zirvesini test edip 4.397\u2019de solukland\u0131; petrol ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Fed patikas\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor. CPI\/PPI \u00f6ncesi volatilite artabilir, opsiyonlarda straddle\/koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t