HSBC\u2019nin at\u0131fta bulundu\u011fu haberlere g\u00f6re USD\/JPY, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 30 ve 31 Temmuz\u2019da yeni desteklemek amac\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi koordineli m\u00fcdahalenin ard\u0131ndan sert geriledi. Her iki otorite de 3 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ortak eylemi teyit ederek gerekmesi halinde yeniden m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. HSBC ayr\u0131ca Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan\u2013May\u0131s 2026 d\u00f6nemindeki tek tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesini de hat\u0131rlatt\u0131; s\u00f6z konusu m\u00fcdahalenin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY\u2019nin m\u00fcdahale \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nmesi yedi hafta s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu emsal, pozisyonlanman\u0131n nas\u0131l evrilebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u015fekillendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n baz senaryosu, USD\/JPY\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay bantta i\u015flemesi; fakat muhtemelen daha geni\u015f bir bantta hareket etmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Buna g\u00f6re periyodik Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flemleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in bir \u201ctavan\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde negatif seyreden reel faizleri pariteye alttan destek vermeye devam ediyor. HSBC, band\u0131n geni\u015fli\u011finin; zay\u0131flayan ABD verileri, Federal Rezerv ileti\u015fimindeki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezli\u011fin artmas\u0131 ve s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik belirsizliklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Japonya taraf\u0131nda ortak m\u00fcdahale ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), Devlet Emeklilik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu (GPIF) ve vergi muafiyetli tasarruf hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erebilecek olas\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri gibi unsurlardan etkilenebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin 30\u201331 Temmuz\u2019daki y\u00fcksek hacimli ortak m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f bir i\u015flem band\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tek tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerin etkisinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi yakla\u015f\u0131k iki hafta s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, bu koordineli hamle piyasan\u0131n Yeni agresif bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satma konusunda olduk\u00e7a \u00e7ekingen kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Y\u00f6n konusunda net bir bahis almadan artan volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in strangle veya iron condor gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak koordineli ad\u0131mlar \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki ta\u015f\u0131r; 2011\u2019deki G7 ortak m\u00fcdahalesine benzer \u015fekilde, bu t\u00fcr hamleler para birimini uzun bir s\u00fcre istikrara kavu\u015fturabilmektedir. Temmuz\u2019daki son sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesinde, spek\u00fclatif net Yeni k\u0131sa (short) kontratlar\u0131 neredeyse rekor seviyelere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 sert \u201cshort squeeze\u201d hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yordu. Piyasan\u0131n yeni s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 test etmesiyle paritenin daha geni\u015f bir 148\u2013156 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde dinamik \u015fekilde dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f faiz oranlar\u0131 derin bi\u00e7imde negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam ediyor. BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131 sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerde pariteyi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Keskin y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k uzun vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY\u2019de alarm zilleri: ABD-Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 30\u201331 Temmuz koordineli m\u00fcdahalesi pariteyi \u00e7arpt\u0131. HSBC, daha geni\u015f 148\u2013156 band\u0131, y\u00fcksek volatilite ve strangle\/iron condor; kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t