Petrol, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik umutlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ve arz riskinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fler s\u00fcrse de, Irak\u2019\u0131n devlet petrol pazarlama \u015firketinden bildirilen a\u011fustos sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyon varil (m b\/d) seviyesinde oldu\u011fu belirtildi; sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde Irak\u2019\u0131n bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden ihracat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,4 m b\/d idi. G\u00f6zlemlenen ge\u00e7i\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131, baz\u0131 tankerlerin transponderlerini kapatarak seyrediyor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde, daha \u00f6nceki bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zaten durmu\u015f olan Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 400 bin varillik Cazan (Jazan) rafinerisine Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 orta distilatlar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ICE gazya\u011f\u0131 (gasoil) crack\u2019i 70 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve yeniden devreye alma tarihinin a\u011fustos sonu oldu\u011fu bildirildi. Avrupa gaz\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi; TTF kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 %9\u2019dan fazla art\u0131\u015fla 60 avro\/MWh\u2019nin \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti. Depolama seviyeleri art\u0131k hem oran hem de mutlak bazda 2021\u2019in alt\u0131nda; AB\u2019nin k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi %75 hedefi ise test ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Tar\u0131mda, \u015feker 2024\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015finin ard\u0131ndan Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti; Avrupa \u00fcretiminin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyeye gerileyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, El Ni\u00f1o riskleri Hindistan ve Tayland \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 unsuru olmaya devam ediyor. Spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 34.599 lot azaltarak 77.814 lote indirirken, br\u00fct k\u0131sa pozisyonlar 19.413 lot d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 274.809 lote geriledi. Kakao mahsulleri Fildi\u015fi Sahili, Kamerun, Nijerya ve Gana\u2019da iyile\u015fen hava ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan fayda g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak Gana\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fcne\u015flenme, siyah kaps\u00fcl (black pod) hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ukrayna Tar\u0131m Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Odesa liman\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve Karadeniz g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek 2026\/27 tah\u0131l ihracat\u0131 tahminini 38\u201340 milyon tona (mt) \u00e7ekti; bu, \u00f6nceki 43 mt tahmininin yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrol piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcren yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ve artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ask\u0131da kalmas\u0131yla Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden 85-90 dolar band\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Irak\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel 3,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesine k\u0131yasla yaln\u0131zca 2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015fmesi, fiziksel arz\u0131n son derece s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki Cazan rafinerisinde insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 kesintilerin ard\u0131ndan 70 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan ICE gasoil crack\u2019lerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n kilitlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, k\u0131\u015f \u0131s\u0131nma sezonu \u00f6ncesinde bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte rafineri aksamalar\u0131, primli fiyatlaman\u0131n uzamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, mevsimsel olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan bu rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in kalorifer yak\u0131t\u0131 (heating oil) ve gasoil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Avrupa do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131nda ise TTF fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden 60 avro\/MWh\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish) duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Mevcut Avrupa gaz depolama seviyeleri, AB stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k %62 kapasitede oldu\u011fu A\u011fustos 2021\u2019in tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinin gerisinde kal\u0131yor. AB\u2019nin m\u00fctevaz\u0131 %75 k\u0131\u015f depolama hedefini tutturmakta zorlanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131\u015f teslimatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, so\u011fuk hava ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tar\u0131m t\u00fcrevlerinde, son on ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015fekerde y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumuna e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa \u00fcretimi \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere inerken k\u00fcresel arz daral\u0131yor; Hindistan\u2019da kam\u0131\u015f \u00fcretimi de El Ni\u00f1o tehditleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya ve bu tablo, 2023\u2019te fiyatlar\u0131 libre ba\u015f\u0131na 27 sentin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 34 binden fazla kontrat azaltarak bu ralliyi besledi\u011fi yo\u011fun k\u0131sa kapama (short-covering) e\u011filimini izlemeli.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ihracat tahminini %12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek 38 milyon tona \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan bu\u011fday ve m\u0131s\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 2022 Karadeniz tah\u0131l krizindeki ihracat darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel bu\u011fday vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 kile ba\u015f\u0131na 12 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelere t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Odesa\u2019daki ilave altyap\u0131 kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Chicago bu\u011fday vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon almak veya vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde tavsiye edilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik tansiyonla petrol ve distilatlar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Irak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sevkiyat\u0131 2 mb\/g\u2019ye indi, gasoil crack 70$+. Avrupa gaz\u0131 60\u20ac\/MWh \u00fcst\u00fcnde. \u015eeker ralli, Ukrayna tah\u0131l\u0131 %12 k\u0131s\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t