Piyasalar, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Temmuz T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dar bantta seyretti. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tutarken, faiz patikas\u0131nda da fiyatlamay\u0131 eyl\u00fclde Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yeniden %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine itti. Brent %2,4, WTI %2,7 y\u00fckseldi; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi etkili olurken, Libya\u2019n\u0131n NOC\u2019si insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde m\u00fccbir sebep ilan edebilece\u011fini ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck 120 bin varillik Zawiya rafinerisini durdurabilece\u011fini uyard\u0131. Alt\u0131n, iki ay\u0131n zirvelerinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %0,4 geriledi; dolar endeksi %0,1 artt\u0131. Getiriler ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta %4,73 seviyesinde; Bund\u2019da %3,20 ve \u0130ngiliz tahvillerinde (gilt) %5,04 d\u00fczeyinde seyretti. Hisse senetleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Hang Seng %1,1 gerilerken, Avrupa endeksleri -%0,3 ile +%0,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD vadeli endeksleri -%0,1 ile +%0,1 band\u0131nda kald\u0131; bitcoin %1,3, ether %2,0 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Asya-Pasifik\u2019te RBA, politika faizini (cash rate) \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci toplant\u0131da oybirli\u011fiyle %4,35\u2019te sabit tuttu; projeksiyonlarda Aral\u0131k 2026 k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama enflasyon tahmini %2,6\u2019dan %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltilirken, Aral\u0131k 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %2,1\u2019den %1,4\u2019e indirildi. Singapur\u2019un 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si %1,1\u2019den %1,4 \u00e7\/\u00e7\u2019ye ve %5,7\u2019den %5,9 y\/y\u2019ye revize edildi; G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de a\u011fustosun ilk 10 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ihracat %45,3 y\/y, ithalat %23,1 artt\u0131. \u015eirket ve tedarik zinciri taraf\u0131nda Intel, en az hisse ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar fiyattan sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 15 milyar dolardan 20 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltti; net gelir 19,7 milyar dolar olurken 31,6 milyon hisselik ek sat\u0131\u015f (greenshoe) opsiyonu da yer ald\u0131. CXMT\u2019nin 17 nm DDR5\u2019te verimi %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n Samsung\u2019un yakla\u015f\u0131k %92\u201393 band\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bildirildi. Norsk Hydro, gaz arz\u0131ndaki kesinti sonras\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k ~6,3 milyon ton kapasiteli Alunorte al\u00fcmina tesisinde \u00fcretimi %50\u2019ye indirdi ve 3\u00c7 2026 d\u00f6neminde 75\u2013100 milyon dolarl\u0131k etki \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran petrol bakan\u0131, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 95 milyon metrek\u00fcp gaz\u0131n eyl\u00fcl sonuna kadar yeniden devreye al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi Moldova\u2013K\u00f6stence demiryolu hatt\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k kapasitesi 4,5 milyon ton olarak verilirken, ihracat tahmini 38\u201340 milyon ton seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol piyasalar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 Brent ve WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan sava\u015f tazminat\u0131 talep etmesiyle arz riskleri fiyatlara belirgin \u015fekilde eksik yans\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak bu kritik nakliye hatlar\u0131ndaki yerel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani %10 ila %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikledi; bu da portf\u00f6yler i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmay\u0131 kritik hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yar\u0131nki T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde eyl\u00fclde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, sabit getirili pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. Hammack gibi merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131ndan gelen \u015fahin tondaki yorumlar ve Avustralya RBA\u2019n\u0131n ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimlerine oynamak erken. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimi, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 Hazine tahvili (Treasury notes) \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, iki ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde tarihsel diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde pozisyonumuzu korumal\u0131y\u0131z. Jeopolitik gerilimle birlikte y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri, alt\u0131n\u0131n egemen risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak cazibesini genellikle art\u0131r\u0131r; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde daha \u00f6nce net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kullanmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalarken \u00f6denen prim riskini s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken ve teknoloji hisselerinde straddle veya strangle gibi y\u00fcksek volatilite stratejileri benimsemeliyiz. \u00c7in\u2019in CXMT\u2019si DDR5 bellekte %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde verim yakalam\u0131\u015f olsa da, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 donan\u0131m pazar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131; ayr\u0131ca Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nerilen 500 milyar dolarl\u0131k altyap\u0131 hedefi gibi dev \u00f6l\u00e7ekli fonlama giri\u015fimleri sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 besleyecek. Bu \u00e7apta sermaye hamleleri ile eyl\u00fclde beklenen teknoloji halka arzlar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fmesi, opsiyon primlerinin belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesini ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE\u2019de: Petrol rallisiyle enflasyon ve Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50+; Brent\/WTI sert y\u00fckseldi. RBA sabit, projeksiyonlar k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. Opsiyonda petrol call, tahvil hedge, alt\u0131n spread \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t