Rupi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc temkinli bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yaparken USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,40 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi; y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel arzda uzayan bir kesinti endi\u015fesi parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. G\u00fcn\u00fcn erken i\u015flemlerinde 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %0,45 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.835 Rs\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak haftal\u0131k zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretti. K\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki jeopolitik gerilimler piyasay\u0131 man\u015fet riskine odakl\u0131 tutarken, bu zemin genellikle Hindistan gibi petrol ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Odak \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Hindistan ve ABD temmuz T\u00dcFE verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Hindistan\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyonun Haziran\u2019a k\u0131yasla y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,4 ile yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, DBS; bakliyat, \u015feker, s\u00fct ve yenilebilir ya\u011flarda fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine, sebze fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti; ayr\u0131ca s\u00fcbvansiyonsuz LPG\u2019nin temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %10 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerin %4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d seyretti\u011fini kaydetti. ABD\u2019de man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,4 ve %2,5 gelmesi beklenirken, temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporu i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin aksine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,26\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 47 civar\u0131nda; destek 95,26 ve ard\u0131ndan 94,15\u2019te, diren\u00e7 ise 96,00 ve 97,10 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak rupi k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %10\u2019luk bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2019i kadar geni\u015fletme e\u011filiminde; bu da yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde anl\u0131k bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. MCX ham petrol\u00fcn h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 7.835 Rs ile haftal\u0131k zirvesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi nedeniyle, daha zay\u0131f bir rupi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) ana \u00f6nerimiz olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesi 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (EMA) hemen \u00fczerinde, 95,26 seviyesinde tutundu\u011fu i\u00e7in hafif yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimi destekleyen dinamik bir teknik taban g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in 95,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 96,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak bir bo\u011fa call spread kurabilir. Spot kur 96,00 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilirse, 97,10\u2019daki t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n psikolojik direnci h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde test edebilir.<\/p>\n
Hem Hindistan hem de ABD\u2019den kritik enflasyon verilerinin yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131yla, ima edilen volatilitede sert bir geni\u015fleme bekliyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, \u00f6nemli T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda gecelik volatiliteyi %15 ila %20 oran\u0131nda art\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu olas\u0131 geni\u015flemeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in, iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareketlerden getiri sa\u011flayan uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan i\u015flem g\u00f6renler i\u00e7in, MCX ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve e\u015fanl\u0131 olarak zarar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki jeopolitik risk primi son derece oynak oldu\u011fundan, ani bir diplomatik de\u011fi\u015fim h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fczeltmesini tetikleyebilir. Bu dengeli t\u00fcrev yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma e\u015flik ederken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi rupiyi zorluyor: USD\/INR 95,40\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. G\u00f6zler Hindistan-ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; volatilite artabilir. Strateji: near-the-money call, 95,50\/96,50 bull spread; 96 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 97,10 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t