Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta da y\u00fckselerek son alt\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn be\u015finde art\u0131da seyretti ve 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.435 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan zay\u0131f ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi, Fed\u2019in hemen bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi beklentilerini yumu\u015fatarak faiz getirisi olmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7eye talebi destekledi. Bununla birlikte piyasa, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 ham petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle y\u0131l sonuna kadar bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ise politika patikas\u0131na dair daha net sinyal i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verilerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Petroldeki hareket, yeniden artan arz kesintisi riskleriyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor: \u0130ran, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 20 Ocak 2029\u2019da sona erene kadar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere yeniden ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu durum H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimaline dair beklentileri bask\u0131lad\u0131. \u00d6te yandan Bab el-Mendep\u2019ten ge\u00e7i\u015fler, Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 Husilerin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka nedeniyle k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) ve %50,0 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; RSI 68,89 seviyesinde ve MACD histogram\u0131 pozitif, diren\u00e7 ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.498 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde. Sonraki diren\u00e7ler 4.514,92, ard\u0131ndan 4.669 ve 4.866,98; destekler 4.406 ve 4.389, devam\u0131nda 4.297, 4.162 ve 3.945 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan 4.435 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerindeki so\u011fuma alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, bu \u00c7ar\u015famba ve Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri Fed\u2019in faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu yak\u0131n vadeli olay riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in mevcut rallinin pe\u015finden k\u00f6rlemesine gitmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131, bunun yerine artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019yu yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; Bab el-Mendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fcklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. G\u00fcncel denizcilik verileri, bu kritik bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en ticari ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimlerinin g\u00fcvenli seviyelere k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da tedarik zinciri darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n ciddiyetini ortaya koyuyor. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 bu enflasyon tehdidi, Fed\u2019den \u015fahin bir duru\u015f ihtimalini d\u0131\u015flamamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor; b\u00f6yle bir senaryo ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, alt\u0131n 4.389 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam ederken al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 68,89 seviyesinde seyrederek momentumun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeleri olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. 4.406\u20134.389 aras\u0131ndaki sa\u011flam destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde, sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle uzun (long) pozisyon aramay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, yak\u0131n direnci net bi\u00e7imde a\u015farsa, \u00f6nce 4.498 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama, ard\u0131ndan bir sonraki kritik Fibonacci seviyesi olan 4.514,92 dolar hedeflenebilir. Aram\u0131zdaki opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalarken ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejilerini kullanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 4.389 deste\u011finin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc temiz \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.297 dolara do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla daha savunmac\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmemiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.435 dolarla 5 Haziran\u2019dan beri zirvede: Zay\u0131f NFP Fed bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE\u2019de. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku enflasyon riskini diri tutuyor; 4.498 diren\u00e7, 4.389 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t