Alt\u0131n haftaya y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.316 dolarl\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,50 art\u0131\u015fla 4.352 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik taleplerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi alt\u0131na destek verirken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasalar ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerini de\u011ferlendirirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,14 art\u0131\u015fla 99,75\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ge\u00e7en haftaki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 binlik istihdam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederken, May\u0131s ve Haziran verileri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi; Richmond Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Thomas Barkin ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fe al\u0131m, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi temmuz T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilemesi, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da so\u011fumas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 8 A\u011fustos ile biten haftaya ili\u015fkin ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 199 binden 201 bine y\u00fckselmesi tahmin ediliyor. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in 2026 sonuna kadar 22 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, \u00f6nceki 17 baz puandan yukar\u0131da. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; WTI %6\u2019ya yak\u0131n art\u0131\u015fla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81,54 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik olarak alt\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) bulundu\u011fu 4.389 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.400 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.498 dolar, destekler ise 4.202 dolar, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.150 dolar ve 4.100 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 4.389 dolar seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n bu kilit seviyenin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, 4.400 ve 4.500 dolar hedefleriyle al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ancak mevcut momentum yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ncesinde ani geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler piyasay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkiliyor; \u00f6zellikle ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik su yolunda gecikmelerin uzamas\u0131, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r. Bu arz kesintisinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda ani piyasa hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta haz\u0131rlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verileri. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklenen %3,4 seviyesine gerilemesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 mevcut diren\u00e7lerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 durumunda Fed faiz indirimlerini erteleyebilir; bu da tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken dolar\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinde 23 bin ki\u015filik istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6steren zay\u0131f bordro verisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 201 bine y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; bunun Fed \u00fczerinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talebin alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin tarihsel verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak amac\u0131yla tek bir y\u0131lda 1.037 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu s\u00fcrekli al\u0131m e\u011filimi, 4.202 dolardaki destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin, uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in iskontolu al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda jeopolitik prim: XAU\/USD %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 4.352$\u2019da. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi desteklerken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi temkin fiyat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; kritik e\u015fik 4.389$ diren\u00e7 4.400-4.498$, destek 4.202-4.150$.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t