USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,73 y\u00fckselerek Japon Yeni\u2019nin Japonya\u2019da beklenmedik bir d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,95\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, haziran cari i\u015flemler dengesinin \u00a51.512 milyar fazla beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00a592,3 milyar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fini bildirdi; bu, 17 ay\u0131n ilk a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu. GSYH\u2019nin %200\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc de para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, nisan sonu\u2013may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ve temmuz sonunda (ABD ile koordineli olan dahil) iki olmak \u00fczere tekrarlanan m\u00fcdahale operasyonlar\u0131 da alg\u0131y\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131palamakta zorland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) beklentileri k\u0131smi denge unsuru sundu; Temmuz \u201cG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00d6zeti\u201d (Summary of Opinions) \u00e7o\u011fu politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise toplamda bir tam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de ise zay\u0131f istihdam verileri sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f beklentileri gev\u015fedi; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019de ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Odak, \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak temmuz ABD T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; enflasyon verisi faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin 159,00 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131p ta\u015f\u0131namayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY kritik 159,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken ve ABD T\u00dcFE verisi bu \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacakken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteye odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bir haftal\u0131k USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da uzun straddle stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD enflasyon verisinin pariteyi 160,00 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ya da sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi halinde her iki y\u00f6nde de getiri potansiyeli sunar.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki kur savunmalar\u0131nda harcanan \u00a59,8 trilyon gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 160,00 civar\u0131nda ani kamu ad\u0131m\u0131 riski olduk\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 156,00 civar\u0131nda olan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131yla koruma al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu hedge, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, mali endi\u015feler nedeniyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) getirileri %1,1\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken tahvil piyasas\u0131 da izlenmeli. Piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50 fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte JGB vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak bundan faydalan\u0131labilir. JGB\u2019lerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar, Japonya\u2019da daha h\u0131zl\u0131 politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan beklentilerle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok cari a\u00e7\u0131k Yen\u2019i vurdu: USD\/JPY %0,73 art\u0131\u015fla 158,95\u2019e dayand\u0131. BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyalleri ve Fed gev\u015femesi denge ararken, \u00c7ar\u015famba ABD T\u00dcFE ve 160\u2019ta m\u00fcdahale riski belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t