Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi pazartesi 53.900 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti; yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan\u0131 ancak bulan bir bantta ge\u00e7en seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,3 geriledi. Fiyat hareketi tamamen cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rken, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc bant da per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7indeydi. Intel, endeks hesaplamas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan bir i\u015flemle 15 milyar dolarl\u0131k adi hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan sonra %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Makro verilerde ikinci \u00e7eyrek verimlilik rakamlar\u0131, eme\u011fin \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay\u0131n 1947\u2019ye uzanan serinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan %52,9\u2019a indi\u011fini; birim emek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6demelerin ise y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %14 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Saat ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fcretim \u00e7eyrekte %1,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,2 artarken; d\u00f6ng\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,1 bile\u015fik art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Saatlik \u00fccret\/kompanzasyon %2,7 y\u00fckseldi ancak t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltildi\u011finde %3,1 geriledi; birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri %1,3 artarken katma de\u011fer fiyat deflat\u00f6r\u00fc %7 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Petrol g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 man\u015fetler ve ABD\u2019nin yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131m\/ek listelemeleri risk primlerini art\u0131r\u0131rken WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 81 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Brent 86 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda faiz patikas\u0131 yeniden fiyatland\u0131: 16 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %49,9, sabit tutma %50,1; ekim %76,5. \u0130kinci bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %14,4\u2019ten %24,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ise mevcut aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131na \u201c\u015fans yok\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor. Takip edilecek veriler: \u00e7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE (ayl\u0131k %0,1; y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4; \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5), per\u015fembe \u00dcFE (ayl\u0131k %0,2; \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2) ile birlikte haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 201 bin; cuma perakende sat\u0131\u015flar %0,2 ve Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 55,2\u2019den 54\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Teknik seviyeler: 54.000\u2019in hemen \u00fczeri diren\u00e7; cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan 54.100 ve rekor seviyeye yak\u0131n 54.750. Destek 53.800; ard\u0131ndan 53.500 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 52.100; Stoch RSI 57 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones\u2019ta 53.900 civar\u0131nda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc dar bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir volatilite k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler, b\u00f6yle dar konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemlerinin\u2014\u00f6zellikle kritik enflasyon verileri yakla\u015f\u0131rken\u2014\u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert hareketlerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde uzun straddle veya strangle stratejileriyle volatilitedeki ani geni\u015flemeye haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Brent\u2019in 86 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 81 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle jeopolitik risk primleri enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yeniden belirgin bi\u00e7imde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Enerji taraf\u0131ndaki son g\u00f6stergeler, k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 104 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ortalanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n ise arz kesintilerine y\u00fcksek uyumu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. Artan idari d\u00fczenleme\/yapt\u0131r\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler ve arz taraf\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131, enerji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek endekslerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Son verimlilik verileri \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir tablo \u00e7iziyor: \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131dan eme\u011fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay %52,9 ile tarihi dip seviyeye inerek 1947\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir d\u00fczeye geriledi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u00fccret\/kompanzasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 geride kalsa da \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde korundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Marjlardaki bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in temel bir tampon olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 biriktirmek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor: eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %49,9 ile adeta yaz\u0131-tura seviyesinde. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in enerji ve tarifeler gibi \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d emek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 maliyetlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri y\u00fcksek kalma e\u011filiminde oluyor. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131, y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 ve faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla konumlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan Dow\u2019da 53.800 seviyesi kritik e\u015fik. Bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, son k\u0131r\u0131lma denemesini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131larak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 52.100\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; 53.800 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ise al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow 53.900\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, %0,3 geriledi: T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi k\u0131r\u0131lma kap\u0131da. Intel %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Verimlilikte emek pay\u0131 tarihi dip. Petrol sert y\u00fckseldi. Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaz\u0131-tura; opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t