Avustralya dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131yla, \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,7060 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek bir miktar gev\u015fedi. Politika faizinin (cash rate), daha \u00f6nce 3,60% seviyesinden yap\u0131lan 2026 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4,35%\u2019te sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 genel beklenti olurken, e\u015flik edecek Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (Statement on Monetary Policy) g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminler sunacak ve RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michelle Bullock\u2019un k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra konu\u015fma yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise Temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 binlik istihdam kayb\u0131na i\u015faret etti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc daral\u0131rken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 4,1%\u2019e hafif gerileyerek, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. AUD\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 e\u011filimi korudu; parite 0,7063 ile 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA (0,7050) ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n (0,7007) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 59 civar\u0131ndaki RSI momentumun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7 0,7064 ve 0,7070 seviyelerinde bulunurken, destekler 0,7057 ve 0,7054\u2019te izlendi.<\/p>\n\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n faizi 4,35%\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatiliteye odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Bullock\u2019un bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131, \u015fahin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etmesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Daha \u00f6nceki RBA tahmin g\u00fcncellemelerine ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, beklenmedik politika dilinin tek seansta 80 pipin \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisine giderken, enflasyonun beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de 23 bin ki\u015filik s\u00fcrpriz istihdam kayb\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir T\u00dcFE verisi Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde yeniden canland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Avustralya dolar\u0131nda ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 hafta vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) AUD\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak korunma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan AUD\/USD, 20 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (0,7050) hemen \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in, 0,7070\u2019deki yak\u0131n direncin biraz \u00fczerine stop-entry al\u0131\u015f emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 100 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (0,7007) alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacak ve k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD ve Avustralya tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark, t\u00fcrev piyasalar i\u00e7in ana belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon kat\u0131 seyrini korurken ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011fursa, swap piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde RBA\u2019dan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayabilir. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar 0,7200 hedefiyle Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bull-call spread stratejilerine girilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler RBA\u2019da: AUD\/USD 0,7060\u2019ta soluklan\u0131rken piyasa faizin 4,35\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131, Bullock mesajlar\u0131yla volatiliteyi fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de eksi istihdam, T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi Fed bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Teknikte diren\u00e7 0,7070.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t