EUR\/USD, temmuz ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan gelen zay\u0131flama sonras\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toparlan\u0131p dengelenmesiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Parite 1,1553 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, son hareketler bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle %0,10 art\u0131\u015fla 99,70 civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi \u00f6ncesinde Fed\u2019in faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatl\u0131yor. Temmuz istihdam raporu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n eyl\u00fclde ad\u0131m beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesine neden oldu. \u00d6te yandan, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyonun Fed hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutuyor; CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %44 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda daha sakin bir ileti\u015fim kurmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de olas\u0131 bir yumu\u015faman\u0131n dengeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirip 1,160 civar\u0131ndaki seviyeleri ve 1,1630\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test edip etmeyece\u011fine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Sakin yaz haftalar\u0131nda ilerlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/USD paritesinde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; parite \u015fu anda 1,1553 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,70 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, yeni makroekonomik veriler mevcut kilidi a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasa sert bir harekete haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihsel veriler, DXY\u2019nin kritik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman algoritmik al\u0131mlar\u0131 tetikleyerek Euro\u2019yu h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Enflasyon beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelirse, piyasadaki eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin kalan %44\u2019l\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde silinmesi muhtemel. Bu senaryoda, 1,1600 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde biriken jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 da korunmak gerekiyor. Zira bu hayati ge\u00e7it, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor; olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma ya da kapanma, Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerini h\u0131zla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85-90 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir. Bu t\u00fcr bir enerji \u015foku enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 besler, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f beklentilerini yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131r ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi h\u0131zla 1,1450 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgelerine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc tehdit ortam\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in straddle stratejisi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya spot pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Jeopolitik risk alevlenmelerine kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir \u201cproxy\u201d koruma olarak, EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Brent ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar kaynakl\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi sa\u011flarken portf\u00f6yleri petrol kaynakl\u0131 ani piyasa \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de: EUR\/USD 1,1553\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, DXY 99,70\u2019te. Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi 1,1600-1,1630 testini getirebilir; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz petrol riski 1,1450 bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Opsiyon\/straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t