AUD\/JPY, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,70 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 112,25 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareketi, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 JPY zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 desteklerken, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 (AUD) sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yatay seyretti. Yen\u2019deki sat\u0131\u015f, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n cari hesab\u0131n\u0131n haziranda \u00a51.512 mlr fazla beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00a592,3 mlr a\u00e7\u0131k vermesine d\u00f6nmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek temett\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Mali endi\u015feler de bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; kamu borcu GSYH\u2019nin %200\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyrederken, geni\u015flemeci politika \u00f6nerileri uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheleri art\u0131rd\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemdeki para birimini destekleyici ad\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini koruyor; temmuz \u201cG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00d6zeti\u201d de, i\u00e7 faizler benzer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00e7o\u011fu yetkilinin daha fazla politika normalle\u015fmesini destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da piyasalar, bu y\u0131lki \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u0130lgi, olas\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya dair sinyaller i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klama metni, tahminler ve Ba\u015fkan Michele Bullock\u2019un de\u011ferlendirmelerine y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumda. AUD ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu temmuzda alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilerken, \u00fcretici fiyat enflasyonu da beklentiden daha fazla so\u011fudu. Ancak ana belirleyici yine JPY zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu. Faiz piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlama, eyl\u00fclde 25 bp\u2019lik bir BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise toplamda tam bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Bloomberg anketine g\u00f6re 31 ekonomist bu hafta RBA\u2019dan de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, paritede 113,00 seviyesine do\u011fru yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalanmak \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. RBA\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n faizi %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak Avustralya ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, carry trade Avustralya Dolar\u0131 lehine i\u015flemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; kamu borcunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %250\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor ve bu oran G7 i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek seviyede. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, BoJ\u2019un agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na gitmesini, kamu bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini sert bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltmeden zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde Yen\u2019de ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na pozisyon almaya devam etmek i\u00e7in \u201cknock-out\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fclde BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %50 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Olas\u0131 \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize veya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek ani bir m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla, ucuz ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzakta (out-of-the-money) AUD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 eklenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu \u00e7ift kanatl\u0131 strateji, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelerinin tekrar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korur; bu t\u00fcr s\u00fcre\u00e7ler tarihsel olarak d\u00f6viz paritelerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok y\u00fczdeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY 112,25\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131: JPY\u2019de cari denge \u015foku ve bor\u00e7 kayg\u0131lar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f getirdi. RBA \u00f6ncesi AUD yatay. 113 hedefli call\/knock-out \u00f6nerisi, BoJ s\u00fcrprizine OTM put kalkan\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t