EUR\/CAD, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Avrupa saatlerinde 1,6120 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Euro, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duyarl\u0131l\u0131k verilerinden destek buldu. Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019ta 0,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek son be\u015f ay\u0131n ilk pozitif de\u011ferini ald\u0131; endeks Mart\u2019ta negatif b\u00f6lgeye kaym\u0131\u015f, Temmuz\u2019da ise -3,1\u2019e toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7aprazdaki kazan\u00e7lar, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n petrole duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 77,20 dolar civar\u0131nda. Petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizliklerin etkisiyle toparland\u0131: \u0130ran, hafta sonu Umman ile g\u00fcvenli bir sevkiyat rotas\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131n hemen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran destekli Yemen\u2019deki Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki Cizan rafinerisine sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Abu Dabi Ulusal Petrol \u015eirketi (ADNOC) taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fletilen bir tankerin bo\u011fazda sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011framas\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel riskler g\u00fcndemde kald\u0131. HSBC Asset Management, petrol fiyat\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015fa dikkat \u00e7ekerek \u00f6zellikle petrokimya, g\u00fcbre ve end\u00fcstriyel gazlarda arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u015firket bor\u00e7lular\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 yay\u0131lma etkilerine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca EUR\/CAD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite 1,6120 civar\u0131nda seyrederken piyasa, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki ekonomik toparlanma ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin ya t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ya da ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulmas\u0131yla sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
Euro\u2019nun diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc anlamak i\u00e7in Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni\u2019nin 0,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesine ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonu %2 hedefine yak\u0131n tutmaya y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcregelen \u00e7abalar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n aylar s\u00fcren daralma sonras\u0131 pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7mesiyle Euro\u2019nun genellikle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler \u00fcretmeye devam ederse, ani yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli EUR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan Kanada dolar\u0131, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 77,20 dolar civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanan WTI ham petrole g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Son enerji raporlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrekte 10 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ek sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 ya da petrol \u00fcretiminde ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler riskine kar\u015f\u0131 CAD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p petrokimya ve g\u00fcbreye y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan sekt\u00f6rlerde hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hayati sevkiyat hatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik jeopolitik tehditler, tarihsel olarak girdi maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker ve bu da \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lar. Bu tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7eyreklik k\u00e2rlara yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a, k\u0131r\u0131lgan konumdaki Avrupal\u0131 sanayi ve kimya devlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak kayda de\u011fer getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/CAD 1,6120\u2019ye toparland\u0131; Sentix\u2019in 0,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 Euro\u2019yu destekledi. Ancak 77,20$ WTI ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz jeopoliti\u011fi CAD\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya straddle\/strangle, korunmada CAD put \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t