{"id":52571,"date":"2026-08-10T10:22:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:22:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fed-beklentilerini-yeniden-fiyatlarken-dolar-rba-kararina-dogru-geriliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T10:22:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:22:13","slug":"zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fed-beklentilerini-yeniden-fiyatlarken-dolar-rba-kararina-dogru-geriliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fed-beklentilerini-yeniden-fiyatlarken-dolar-rba-kararina-dogru-geriliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri Fed beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlarken dolar, RBA karar\u0131na do\u011fru geriliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131, 80 binlik art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 23 bin geriledi. BLS, May\u0131s verisini 66 bin (129 binden) ve Haziran verisini 37 bin (57 binden) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize ederken, May\u0131s\u2013Haziran toplam revizyonu 103 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalama 20 bine gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 bin civar\u0131ndaki \u201cba\u015faba\u015f\u201d h\u0131z tahmininin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e indi; ancak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc 264 bin darald\u0131, net istihdam 87 bin azald\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,4\u2019e gerileyerek 2021 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye, ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3\u2019ten %0,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. OIS fiyatlamas\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti: y\u0131l sonu Fed faiz beklentisi 22 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan 17 bp\u2019ye inerken, Eyl\u00fcl fiyatlamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 bp\u2019den 5 bp\u2019ye geriledi. ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri \u201cbull-steepening\u201d g\u00f6sterdi ve dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131; JPY ve CAD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n\n

Dikkatler, yar\u0131n saat 04:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak RBA karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Piyasa beklentisi, bu y\u0131l toplam 75 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizinin (cash rate) %4,35\u2019te \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci kez sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Haziran\u2019dan bu yana man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,0\u2019tan %3,8\u2019e gerilerken, k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama (trimmed-mean) enflasyon %3,5\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; ancak %3,7\u2019lik medyan tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2\u20133 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n ve May\u0131s ay\u0131 y\u0131l sonu projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Avustralya i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 son iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir %4,1\u2013%4,5 band\u0131nda seyrederken, Haziran\u2019da %4,4 oldu; Haziran istihdam\u0131 ise May\u0131s\u2019taki yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 binin ard\u0131ndan 80 bine yak\u0131n artt\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019sini, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Haziran GSYH\u2019sini ve ABD Temmuz \u00dcFE\u2019sini izleyecek. RBA\u2019n\u0131n SoMP arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla verece\u011fi y\u00f6nlendirme, May\u0131s projeksiyonlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131l sonunda %4,7 cash rate ve k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama i\u00e7in Haziran\u2019da %3,8 ve y\u0131l sonunda %3,5 tahminleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n

Para Birimi ve Tahvil Piyasalar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/h3>\n\n

Beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalan ABD istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Man\u015fet tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n beklenen 80 bin art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 23 bin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Fed\u2019in ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilecek bir ekonomik so\u011fumaya dair net sinyallerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da yak\u0131n vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 k\u0131sa dolar stratejilerine kayd\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle USD\/JPY ve USD\/CAD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihsel veriler bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor; zira benzer ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 yava\u015flamalar\u0131 tarihsel olarak faiz beklentilerinde agresif yeniden fiyatlamalar\u0131 tetikledi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine indirimleri fiyatlamaya y\u00f6nelirken k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda getiri e\u011frisinde benzer bir \u201cbull-steepening\u201d bekliyoruz; bu da faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n

RBA ve Piyasa Y\u00f6nlendirmesine Stratejik Yan\u0131t<\/h3>\n\n

E\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika karar\u0131na ve Para Politikas\u0131 Bildirimi\u2019ne (SoMP) odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. RBA enflasyon ve cash rate tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize ederse, AUD put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda zay\u0131flamaya pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, RBA yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon nedeniyle \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemini korursa, AUD\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyon i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam \u015foku: 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklenirken 23 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sert revizyonlar ve yava\u015flayan \u00fccretler Fed beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; getiriler bull-steepening, dolar zay\u0131f. RBA karar\u0131 radar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t