Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k reel GSYH\u2019sinin 2\u00c7\u2019de yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131 1\u00c7\u2019deki %0,6 seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) daha zay\u0131f bir \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,3 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan finansal ko\u015fullar ve hanehalk\u0131 reel gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede BoE, t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2\u00c7\u2019de 1\u00c7\u2019deki %0,6\u2019dan \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,3\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasan\u0131n faiz patikas\u0131 beklentileri GSYH verisine kar\u015f\u0131 hassasiyetini koruyor. Swap e\u011frisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ayda BoE\u2019den ilave 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklendi\u011fini ve Banka Faizi\u2019nin %4,25\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini ima ediyor. Bu, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 BoE\u2019nin tahmini n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan %2,00\u2013%4,00 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yacak; \u00fcstelik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi potansiyelin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor \u015feklinde tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde mevcut Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faiz fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir yeniden fiyatlamaya a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Bu Per\u015fembe, 13 A\u011fustos 2026 tarihinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 2\u00c7 GSYH verisini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira verinin Sterlin\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli seyrini belirlemesi bekleniyor. Piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131, 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 1\u00c7\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,6\u2019l\u0131k geni\u015flemeden \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,4\u2019e yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu rakamda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz gelmedi\u011fi takdirde, Sterlin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kaybetmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunuyor; her iki unsur da t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na fren etkisi yap\u0131yor. BoE ise daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir tablo \u00e7izerek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,3\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini; hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise 1\u00c7\u2019deki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k temposunun yar\u0131s\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu veriler, i\u00e7 talebin bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, GBP put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak veya Sterlin\u2019i daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda satarak daha g\u00fcvercin bir kaymaya pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Swap piyasas\u0131 \u015fu anda ilave 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin duraksamas\u0131 halinde bu beklenti olduk\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. GSYH verisi beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamazsa, faiz beklentilerindeki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Sterlin\u2019i h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ekonomi potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda seyrederken politika faizinin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2,00\u2013%4,00 n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutulmas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verileri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun %2,2 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verme veya faiz indirme i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Piyasay\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye zorlamadan \u00f6nce, bu yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamadan faydalanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin i\u00e7in kritik Per\u015fembe: \u0130ngiltere 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019de yava\u015flama (%0,4; BoE %0,3) bekleniyor. Swaplar 50 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor; zay\u0131f veri, g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlama ve GBP\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t