Zay\u0131f gelen temmuz ay\u0131 ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti; EUR\/USD paritesi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,1581\u2019e y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareketle birlikte piyasalar, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 23 bin azalarak piyasa beklentisi olan +80 binin ve Danske\u2019nin +70 binlik tahmininin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; may\u0131s\u2013haziran revizyonlar\u0131 ise -103 bin oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 beklentilerdeki %4,2\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %4,1\u2019e gerilerken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek \u015eubat 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi.<\/p>\n
Faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131nda piyasa art\u0131k eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 11 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; dolar ayr\u0131ca di\u011fer G10 para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da zay\u0131flad\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni endeksi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; endeks temmuzda, beklentiler kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fla art arda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k iyile\u015fmesini kaydetmi\u015fti. Hafta, Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 alt kalemleri de i\u00e7eren ikinci a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla tamamlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda artan volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131f gelen temmuz ay\u0131 ABD istihdam verisi, ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratarak EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1580 seviyesine y\u00f6nelmesine imkan tan\u0131d\u0131. Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini h\u0131zla azaltmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. G\u00fcncel vadeli i\u015flem verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca 11 baz puanl\u0131k bir ayarlamay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ilave parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015f\u00fcpheyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bizce bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan GSYH a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Euro B\u00f6lgesi faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6reli de\u011fer stratejilerini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler\u2014son olarak %61,4\u2019e indi\u2014Fed\u2019i daha temkinli ve veriye duyarl\u0131 bir duru\u015fa itmi\u015ftir. 2023 sonu ve 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda, so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda G10 para birimlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralliye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer piyasa dinamiklerini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, makro ivme de\u011fi\u015firken ABD dolar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerine sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da ise Sentix Endeksi\u2019ndeki son s\u0131\u00e7ramayla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenindeki iyile\u015fme, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Yakla\u015fan ikinci \u00e7eyrek Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH verisi bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ederse, euronun kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in risk-reversal stratejileri kurgulayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de temmuz istihdam \u015foku dolar\u0131 sarst\u0131: EUR\/USD 1,1581 ile iki ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasa Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl hamlesini 11 bp\u2019ye indirdi; kat\u0131l\u0131m %61,4. Opsiyon\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t